CHINA RES BEER(00291) 东吴证券·2025-03-19 13:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to focus on efficiency improvements and high-end product offerings, with a projected recovery in revenue and profit performance in the coming years [7][8] - The beer business is anticipated to benefit from a shift towards premium products, with sales volume and revenue outperforming the industry [7][8] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend payouts [8] Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue was 38,932 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. In 2024, revenue is projected to decrease slightly to 38,635 million RMB, a decline of 0.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 5,153 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 18.62%. For 2024, it is expected to drop to 4,739 million RMB, a decrease of 8.03% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.59 RMB, projected to decrease to 1.46 RMB in 2024, before recovering to 1.63 RMB in 2025 [1] Business Performance - The beer segment's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 36,486 million RMB, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [7][8] - The company is focusing on high-end products, with sales of premium beers increasing by 9% year-on-year [7][8] - The white liquor segment is also undergoing optimization, with a projected revenue of 21.49 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth of 3.97% [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its dual focus on beer and white liquor, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 52.76 billion RMB, 57.22 billion RMB, and 61.34 billion RMB respectively, indicating growth rates of 11.33%, 8.45%, and 7.21% [8] - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a strong growth trajectory in its premium beer offerings, with a focus on cost optimization and efficiency improvements [8]