智通财经APP获悉，联想集团-R(80992)、中国平安-R(82318)、小米集团-WR(81810)上一交易日沽空比 率位于前三位，分别为91.38%、83.34%、80.95%。腾讯控股(00700)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、小米集团- W(01810)的沽空金额位居前三，分别为29.69 亿元、23.66 亿元、10.16 亿元。中国平安-R(82318)、小米 集团-WR(81810)、华润啤酒(00291)的偏离值位居前三，分别为36.33%、34.41%、33.89%。 前十大沽空偏离值排行 前十大沽空比率排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率↓ | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联想集团-R(80992) | 52.16 万元 | 91.38% | 11.53% | | 中国平安-R(82318) | 200.88 万元 | 83.34% | 36.33% | | 小米集团-WR(81810) | 597.54 万元 | 80.95% | 34.41% | | 华润啤酒-R(80291) | 19.36 万元 | 79.87% | 6.53% ...

跟隨《中銀做客》佈局內需，華潤啤酒的關鍵阻力與衍生品詳解 近期港股市場波動不減，但作為內需消費板塊的代表之一，華潤啤酒（00291.HK）的股價卻走出了獨立行情。自1月以來，股價從低位穩步攀升，截至2月4 日收盤報27.16元，盤中更是一度升穿關鍵技術位，引發市場關注。這波上漲究竟是趨勢反轉的開始，還是一輪技術性沖高後的短暫狂歡？本文將結合最新 的技術圖表、市場新聞，並整合2月4日《港股Podcast》 及1月6日《中銀做客》 的專欄觀點，為您多維度解析華潤啤酒的短線博弈格局。 截止今日（5日）最新股價27.44元，升幅1.03%。從最新的技術圖表來看，華潤啤酒的短期走勢可謂強勢中暗藏分歧。最引人注目的是，在2月4日的交易 中，股價盤中成功升穿並收盤站於保力加通道頂部之上。這是一個重要的技術信號，通常表明股價處於短期上升動能的強勢階段，趨勢有望延續。均線系統 也呈現多頭排列雛形，股價運行在MA10（26.2元）和MA30（26.36元）上方，為後續走勢提供了基礎支撐。 然而，在一片看漲的圖表形態下，多項震盪指標已亮起"黃燈"。相對強弱指數（RSI）目前位於61，雖未進入極端超買區，但已偏離中性區域，顯示買盤力 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院啤酒研究小组发布的《中国啤酒行业品牌竞争与消费需求投资预 测分析报告》 行业主要上市公司：华润啤酒(00291.HK);青岛啤酒(600600);百威亚太(01876.HK);重庆啤酒(600132);燕 京啤酒(000729)等 本文核心数据：行业供需分析;行业竞争格局;行业市场规模等 行业概况 1、定义 啤酒是一种以小麦芽和大麦芽为主要原料，并加啤酒花，经过液态糊化和糖化，再经过液态发酵酿制而 成的酒精饮料。 啤酒可根据工艺分类为纯生啤酒、干啤酒、全麦芽啤酒、黑啤酒等。可根据酵母分为顶部发酵啤酒和底 部发酵啤酒。可根据色泽分为淡色啤酒、浓色啤酒和黑啤。从啤酒产品上来说，市场上多数啤酒的酿造 工艺较为接近，产品存在严重同质化。 2、产业链剖析：行业进入成熟期，产业链结构稳简洁 啤酒行业目前在我国已经拥有较为成熟的产业链。上游企业以原材料、酿造设备以及啤酒包装等部分构 成，其中原材料以麦芽、啤酒花、酵母等产品为主。中游为啤酒生产商，目前我国中游啤酒生产商已形 成垄断趋势，市场份额主要由华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、重庆啤酒以及燕京啤酒垄断，五大品牌 产量 ...

【招商食品】啤酒板块观点更新及跟踪20260202： 当前行业股息率较高且龙头分红仍处于提升趋势中，为股价提供支撑，关注26年在服务消费回暖的拉动、及通胀 预期下行业量、价的修复性增长。 推荐龙头地位凸显、高端化持续推进的# 华润啤酒。 经营触底回升、股息率（4.8%）支撑的# 重啤。 大单品放量驱动增长、盈利能力有望持续提升的#燕京。 估值回落低位 【招商食品】啤酒板块观点更新及跟踪20260202： 推荐龙头地位凸显、高端化持续推进的# 华润啤酒。 经营触底回升、股息率（4.8%）支撑的# 重啤。 大单品放量驱动增长、盈利能力有望持续提升的#燕京。 估值回落低位，股息率（A：4.0%H:5.5%）支撑的 预计2025年收入/利润391亿/58亿（未考虑减值）。 重啤：#Q4趋势优于同期，核心因25年严控库存节奏，24年同期去库存折扣下吨酒价下滑，预计全年销量持平微 增、乌苏疆内外均增长（超预期）、嘉士伯、风花雪月双位数增长。 华润：# 25年啤酒量增小个位数、价格平稳、H2略弱于H1，全年利润高单到两位数增长；白酒业务下滑30-40%， 不宜将减值作为影响股价的关键因素。 当前行业股息率较高且龙头分红仍处 ...

| 截至月份: | 2026年1月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 華潤啤酒(控股)有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年2月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00291 | | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80291 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - **Strong Sales Performance**: Moutai's sales velocity is robust, with prices recovering to over 1,600 RMB, exceeding market expectations. From January 1 to January 9, over 400,000 transactions occurred, with an average daily supply exceeding 50 tons, indicating strong market demand [1][2]. - **Market Bottom Indicators**: The baijiu industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with the 1,499 RMB Moutai indicating clear volume and price bottom characteristics. Historical data suggests that Moutai and Wuliangye's volume increases signal industry recovery [1][6]. - **Investment Recommendation**: Guizhou Moutai is the preferred investment target, historically outperforming in price, stock performance, and earnings when the industry enters a recovery phase. Revenue growth rates exceeded 20% in 2016 and over 50% in 2017 [1][7]. - **Valuation of Other Baijiu Companies**: Leading baijiu companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are currently undervalued, with valuations around 15 times earnings or lower. These companies also have high dividend yields, making them attractive for investment [1][10]. Yellow Wine Sector - **Market Expansion**: The yellow wine sector is expanding through price increases, new product launches, and innovative marketing strategies. Leading companies like Kuaijishan are performing well, and Guolongshan is actively pursuing high-end, youth-oriented, and national strategies [1][12]. Beer Industry Insights - **Resilience in Sales**: The beer industry is showing resilience with positive sales growth, particularly as the restaurant sector recovers, which is expected to positively impact beer consumption. Yanjing Beer has high expectations for operational improvement, with significant profit contributions from its health product line [1][4][14]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Yanjing Beer is recommended due to its improving operational metrics and expansion into health products, with projected profit growth. Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer are also noteworthy, with attractive dividend yields and low valuations [1][15]. Cost Factors - **Cost Management**: The cost of aluminum cans is under control, and there are signs of improvement in malt costs. The overall impact on ton costs is minimal, suggesting a focus on revenue recovery and price increases is essential [1][16]. Conclusion - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The baijiu industry is at a critical juncture, with Moutai leading the recovery. Other sectors like yellow wine and beer are also showing potential for growth, driven by strategic initiatives and market recovery trends. Investors are encouraged to consider both Moutai and other leading brands for their strong fundamentals and growth prospects [1][9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded its performance forecast for China Resources Beer (00291), expecting a slight decline in sales for last year and modest growth for this year, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price reduction from HKD 40.5 to HKD 38 [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to experience a sales decline of 0.2% year-on-year for last year and a growth of 2.1% for this year [1] - Adjusted EBIT is expected to increase by 4.4% and 13.8% year-on-year for last year and this year, respectively [1] Group 2: Management Insights - During a forum held by Morgan Stanley, the management indicated that beer consumption demand this year is expected to be similar to last year, with low single-digit volume growth and stable average selling prices [1] - The company has locked in costs, maintaining control over aluminum and barley expenses [1] Group 3: Financial Health and Future Outlook - The sales and loss situation for liquor in the second half of last year was worse than in the first half, leading to potential goodwill impairment in the fourth quarter [1] - The visibility for this year's outlook remains low [1] - The company is focused on cost savings and efficiency improvements to sustain profit margins [1] - The target payout ratio is set to increase from 60% last year to 70% by 2027, suggesting a projected dividend yield of over 5% by 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the earnings forecast for China Resources Beer (00291), expecting a slight sales decline of 0.2% last year and a modest increase of 2.1% this year, while adjusted EBIT is projected to rise by 4.4% and 13.8% respectively [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings Forecast - The sales forecast for China Resources Beer is expected to decline by 0.2% for the previous year and increase by 2.1% for the current year [1] - Adjusted EBIT is anticipated to grow by 4.4% last year and 13.8% this year [1] Group 2: Management Insights - Management indicated that beer consumption demand this year may be similar to last year, with low single-digit volume growth and stable average selling prices [1] - Cost control measures have been implemented, particularly for aluminum and barley, which are expected to remain stable [1] Group 3: Financial Health and Future Outlook - The company reported that the sales and loss situation for liquor in the second half of last year was worse than in the first half, potentially leading to goodwill impairment in Q4 [1] - The visibility for this year's outlook remains low [1] - Continuous cost-saving measures and efficiency improvements are expected to support profit margins [1] - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio from 60% last year to 70% by 2027, suggesting a projected dividend yield of over 5% by 2027 [1]

该行下调对润啤的业绩预测，预计公司去年及今年销售分别按年跌0.2%及上升2.1%，经调整EBIT料分 别按年升4.4%及13.8%。该行维持对润啤"增持"评级，目标价由40.5港元降至38港元。 摩根大通发表报告指，华润啤酒管理层在该行举行的论坛上披露多项讯息，主要内容包括今年啤酒消费 需求或与去年相若，即低单位数销量增长及平均售价不变。但由于已锁定成本，铝及大麦成本受控。然 而，白酒去年下半年销售及亏损情况差于上半年，导致去年第四季或要计入商誉减值，且今年展望能见 度仍低。公司亦披露成本节约及效益改善持续保障公司利润率，公司亦目标把派息率由去年60%增至 2027年70%，该行认为意味2027年预测股息率有5厘以上。 ...