策略日报（2025.03.19）-2025-03-19

Group 1: Bond Market - The bond market shows a mixed performance with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds slightly declining, while the 30-year bond shows a slight increase. The market has fully priced in the interest rate cut expectations, and the 10-year government bond has stabilized after hitting a technical support level [16][20][22] - The 10-year government bond futures have broken below the gap from December 9, 2024, indicating a bearish trend, suggesting that bullish investors should remain cautious and observe [19][20] - The yield curve is flattening, and the low volatility in the 30-year and 10-year yield spread indicates a high policy risk, which has been validated by recent market movements [20][22] Group 2: Stock Market - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.32%. The number of declining stocks significantly outnumbered those that rose [25] - The technology sector's long-term bull market is not over, but short-term trading is crowded, leading to potential volatility. Investors are advised to take profits and focus on low-position stocks in dividends, consumption, and healthcare [25][26] - The U.S. stock market is undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with the Nasdaq down over 1.5%. The market is shifting from "Trump Put" to "Trump Recession," indicating a likely monthly level adjustment [29][30] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.2370, an increase of 104 basis points from the previous close. The market is betting on a European revival while questioning the "American exceptionalism" narrative [33] - The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and it is expected to remain stable between 7.1 and 7.4 in the short term. However, the ongoing trade war pressures may lead to a depreciation of the RMB, with a forecasted bottom of 7.5-7.6 for 2025 [33][34] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.54%, with precious metals and soft commodities leading gains, while coal, oil, and ferroalloy sectors faced declines. The index is currently at the lower end of its range, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [38][39]