Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 28.00, representing a potential upside of 2.6% from the current price of HKD 27.30 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The online business is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2024, with projected revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, driven by a 9% growth in paid reading users [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.4 billion, with a stable outlook for core paid reading revenue and growth anticipated from derivative products and short dramas [2][7]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in visual adaptations and the expansion of short drama and derivative product offerings [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 8.1 billion, with online business revenue expected to reach RMB 4.1 billion, reflecting a 5% increase from previous estimates [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 1.3 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 16.5% [3][21]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.4 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17.5% [3][21]. Business Segments - The core IP operations are expected to generate RMB 2.7 billion in revenue for 2025, a 14% increase from the previous year [2][13]. - The new media segment, including short dramas, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with over 100 new works planned for release in 2024 [2][7]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its offline channel capabilities for IP derivative products, with a projected gross merchandise value (GMV) exceeding RMB 500 million in 2024 [2][7].
阅文集团：2024下半年在线业务增长超预期；关注衍生品、短剧业务增长-20250320