大宗系列｜化工行业：大投产后聚酯产业链表现分化，PTA供需压力大

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging year for the polyester industry in 2024, with significant production capacity pressures expected, particularly in PTA [2][3]. Core Insights - The polyester industry is transitioning from a phase of new capacity additions to a focus on balancing existing capacity, leading to increased industry adjustments [2][8]. - Price volatility has decreased across various products, but significant differentiation has emerged between upstream and downstream segments [2][8]. - The supply-demand dynamics for PX and PTA are expected to remain under pressure, while ethylene glycol is anticipated to see marginal improvements in its supply-demand balance [5][22]. Summary by Sections Polyester Industry Overview - 2024 is projected to be a challenging year, with a shift from new capacity investments to the rebalancing of existing capacities [2][8]. - The overall production capacity for polyester is expected to increase by approximately 689 million tons, with a total capacity reaching 8,508 million tons [38]. PX (Paraxylene) - PX production is expected to see limited new capacity additions in 2024, with a total production of 3,770 million tons, reflecting an 11.9% growth [14][21]. - The domestic PX supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, while demand remains strong, leading to a potential improvement in the supply-demand balance [21][22]. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - PTA is facing significant production capacity pressures, with an expected total capacity of 9,472 million tons by the end of 2025, reflecting a 10% growth rate [22][32]. - The demand for PTA is projected to grow by 11.6% in 2024, with total consumption reaching approximately 6,634 million tons [23][24]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is expected to experience a stable supply-demand balance in 2024, with production capacity anticipated to increase by 160 million tons by the end of 2025 [5][35]. - The overall price for ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation range, with a slight upward adjustment in the price center [5][35]. Market Dynamics - The polyester market is characterized by a significant increase in bottle chip production, while short fibers and long fibers are expected to see stable growth [38][39]. - The overall industry is experiencing a rise in inventory levels, with a projected total inventory accumulation of approximately 800,000 tons for PTA [45].