| 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 | 随着特朗普再次就职美国总统,其政策逻辑和施政状况逐渐展现，全球影响 | | --- | --- | | 研究发展部 | 也日益凸显,将对世界格局产生深远影响。特朗普第二任期("特朗普 2.0") | | 翁欣 | 的施政逻辑进一步强化了"美国优先"导向,对其对中国发起的关税战、技 | | wengx@cspengyuan.com | 术封锁与地缘政治博弈形成系统性压力。然而,这场被美方标榜为"战略竞 | | | 争"的对抗,实则成为检验中国发展韧性与战略智慧的试金石。在危机与机 | | | 遇的交织中,中国正通过结构性改革与全球治理创新,探索一条突破围堵、重 | 塑规则的新路径。 (一)美国现状:表面繁荣难掩霸权地位动摇 2024年,美国以 29.2万亿美元的经济总量继续领跑全球,华尔街股市频创新 高,科技巨头市值膨胀与消费数据的光鲜之下,却难掩其霸权根基的深层裂 痕: 联邦债务突破 36万亿美元(占 GDP 123%),贫富差距(基尼系数 0.63) 与政治极化(两党支持率相差不足 3%)撕裂社会共识;国际层面,美元储备 份额跌至 47%的历史低点,金砖国家扩员加速"去 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in February, the performance of major asset classes showed a trend of "stocks > commodities > bonds," with A-share indices rising, particularly in the TMT and machinery sectors, while defensive sectors like resources and utilities saw declines [4][10] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 9 basis points to 1.72%, with the short-term bond index performing relatively well, while the government bond index and credit bond index recorded returns of -0.8% and -0.2% respectively [4][13] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a "spring rally," driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and humanoid robots, while defensive sectors like banks and utilities faced declines [5][22] Group 2 - The macroeconomic analysis reveals that the overall economy is stabilizing, with January's social financing showing a strong start, and February's inflation falling below seasonal expectations, marking the first negative year-on-year core CPI in nearly four years [5][34] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2 in February, indicating a return to expansion, with production and demand indices also showing improvement [41] - The fiscal policy is described as proactive, with a focus on issuing replacement bonds and increasing local government debt limits, which is expected to support economic development [45] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to face short-term pressure, with a recommendation to be defensive, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on bonds [6][8] - The stock market is anticipated to continue benefiting from clear industrial trends, with structural opportunities in sectors like artificial intelligence and humanoid robots [6][8] - Commodity prices are expected to experience high volatility, particularly in gold, while Brent crude oil prices are projected to remain weak amid geopolitical uncertainties [6][8]

中证鹏元 大国博弈与新秩序 世界格局新阶段与 中美竞争回顾 主要内容: 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 研究发展部 翁欣 wengx@cspengyuan.com 近年来,世界格局经历了深刻的变化,大国竞争,尤其是中美之间的博弈, 已经从经济领域扩展到科技、文化、环境、全球治理等多个领域。随着特 朗普 2.0 时代的到来,全球的产业、贸易、科技、金融竞争格局进一步复 杂化,世界秩序也随之重构。本文通过回顾中美竞争的历程,分析当前世 界格局的新阶段,并探讨未来的应对策略。 从历史经验来看,当一个新兴经济体的制造业规模超越前一个经济体,并 且其 GDP 总量达到前一个经济体的 60%以上,通常意味着进入了大国竞争 阶段。2010年中国制造业产值超过美国,2016年中国名义 GDP 达到美国 的 60%以上,两国正式进入大国竞争阶段。历史经验表明,大国竞争主要 集中在制造业、经济总量、科技、金融、军事和全球治理六个领域,制造 业通常是追赶国最先实现突破的领域。历史经验还表明,追赶大国只有在 六个领域都超过主导大国,才能改变世界秩序,否则可能被遏制。以 20 世纪的英德、英美、美苏、美日竞争为例,只有美国对英国的挑战成 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a strong support system for the private economy, indicating a positive investment outlook for the sector [2][5]. Core Insights - The 2025 Government Work Report outlines a robust framework for supporting the private economy through legal protection, optimized business environment, market openness, financial support, and technological leadership [2][5]. - The report highlights the importance of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" to ensure equal treatment of private and state-owned enterprises, aiming to enhance the legal framework for private businesses [6][12]. - The government plans to implement measures to improve the business environment, including debt clearance and enhanced government services to boost private enterprise confidence [7][8]. - There is a focus on fostering a unified national market to eliminate hidden barriers and encourage private investment in key infrastructure projects [8][9]. - Financial support will be increased to address the challenges of financing for private enterprises, with a commitment to lower costs and improve access to various funding channels [9][10][11]. - The report stresses the need for supporting technological innovation and transformation within private enterprises, particularly in emerging sectors like AI, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [12][13]. Summary by Sections Legal Protection for Private Enterprises - The report emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to protect the rights of private enterprises, with the "Private Economy Promotion Law" expected to be enacted soon [6]. - It aims to eliminate unfair treatment and enhance the confidence of private enterprises in the market [6]. Optimizing the Business Environment - The report outlines plans to tackle issues such as arbitrary fees and fines, and to clear outstanding debts owed to private enterprises [7]. - It highlights the importance of improving government services to facilitate better communication and support for businesses [8]. National Market Construction - The report advocates for the establishment of a unified national market to promote private investment and participation in major infrastructure projects [8]. - It mentions the introduction of a new negative list for market access to streamline entry for private enterprises [9]. Financial Support - The report discusses the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support private enterprises, with a focus on reducing financing costs [9][10]. - It highlights significant improvements in bond financing for private enterprises, with a notable increase in net financing for non-real estate private companies [10][11]. Technological Innovation and Upgrading - The report calls for nurturing innovative enterprises and supporting the growth of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [12]. - It emphasizes the role of private enterprises in driving advancements in high-tech sectors and the government's commitment to facilitating their development [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The inflation rate in February showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of -0.4% and the previous value of 0.5% [3][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of -2.1% but higher than the previous value of -2.3% [5][20] - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are expected to remain low, with CPI fluctuating between 0-1% in the near term, while PPI is anticipated to show slight recovery [7][27] Data Summary - February CPI year-on-year growth was -0.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2% [3][9] - February PPI year-on-year growth was -2.2%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% [5][20] - The core CPI for February showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth in nearly four years [4][10] Specific Analysis - The report highlights that the CPI's decline is primarily due to the significant drop in food prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing to over 80% of the total CPI decline [4][10] - The PPI's decline is attributed to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, slow post-holiday resumption of production, and falling prices of some international commodities [5][20] - The report notes that the core CPI's negative growth reflects weak demand and a need for improved supply-demand relationships to stabilize prices [7][30] Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI will experience low fluctuations in the near term, while the PPI is expected to gradually recover as the impact of seasonal factors diminishes [7][27] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and stabilize prices [7][30] - The bond market is expected to face short-term adjustments, but the long-term trend remains unchanged, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize between 1.8% and 2.0% [7][30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging year for the polyester industry in 2024, with significant production capacity pressures expected, particularly in PTA [2][3]. Core Insights - The polyester industry is transitioning from a phase of new capacity additions to a focus on balancing existing capacity, leading to increased industry adjustments [2][8]. - Price volatility has decreased across various products, but significant differentiation has emerged between upstream and downstream segments [2][8]. - The supply-demand dynamics for PX and PTA are expected to remain under pressure, while ethylene glycol is anticipated to see marginal improvements in its supply-demand balance [5][22]. Summary by Sections Polyester Industry Overview - 2024 is projected to be a challenging year, with a shift from new capacity investments to the rebalancing of existing capacities [2][8]. - The overall production capacity for polyester is expected to increase by approximately 689 million tons, with a total capacity reaching 8,508 million tons [38]. PX (Paraxylene) - PX production is expected to see limited new capacity additions in 2024, with a total production of 3,770 million tons, reflecting an 11.9% growth [14][21]. - The domestic PX supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, while demand remains strong, leading to a potential improvement in the supply-demand balance [21][22]. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - PTA is facing significant production capacity pressures, with an expected total capacity of 9,472 million tons by the end of 2025, reflecting a 10% growth rate [22][32]. - The demand for PTA is projected to grow by 11.6% in 2024, with total consumption reaching approximately 6,634 million tons [23][24]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is expected to experience a stable supply-demand balance in 2024, with production capacity anticipated to increase by 160 million tons by the end of 2025 [5][35]. - The overall price for ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation range, with a slight upward adjustment in the price center [5][35]. Market Dynamics - The polyester market is characterized by a significant increase in bottle chip production, while short fibers and long fibers are expected to see stable growth [38][39]. - The overall industry is experiencing a rise in inventory levels, with a projected total inventory accumulation of approximately 800,000 tons for PTA [45].