2025年3月宏观经济月报：政策预期锚点回归基本面-2025-03-04

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the industry, indicating a projected performance within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next 12 months [53]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the U.S. with a combination of inflation rebound and strong employment, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [3][15]. - In Europe, economic fundamentals are improving, but the European Central Bank is likely to continue a gradual rate cut approach due to ongoing uncertainties [4][25]. - Domestic consumption is expected to continue its recovery trend, with significant growth in retail and service sectors during the Spring Festival period [28]. - The export sector is showing resilience, supported by increased container throughput at ports and a recovery in the semiconductor supply chain [29]. - Inflation is anticipated to be influenced by seasonal factors, with CPI expected to decline post-Spring Festival due to the normalization of prices [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was revised to 2.3%, with consumer spending remaining strong despite some downward pressures from non-residential investment [13]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q4 2024 was adjusted to 0.1%, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs, although disparities among major economies persist [24]. 2. Domestic Economy - Consumption during the Spring Festival saw a 10.8% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, with significant growth in both goods and services [28]. - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with construction activity not yet returning to pre-holiday levels [29]. - Export growth is expected to maintain resilience, aided by a recovery in global manufacturing and proactive export strategies [29]. 3. Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with potential adjustments post the National People's Congress [6]. - Fiscal policy discussions during the upcoming meetings are likely to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting new productivity initiatives [45].