2月PMI数据点评：制造业延续增长，基建活动回升

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.2% in February, returning to the expansion zone [1][8][30]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has continued its recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, with the February manufacturing PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion [1][2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also saw a slight increase, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, driven by a significant recovery in the construction sector due to infrastructure activities [2][22]. - Fiscal expansion is expected to support economic growth in the first half of the year, with increased corporate loan growth and accelerated government bond financing [2][24]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, and the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1%, both exceeding the highs of the previous quarter [6][10]. - The recovery in manufacturing is primarily driven by large enterprises, with their PMI increasing by 2.6 percentage points to 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises saw declines [6][15]. - Manufacturing prices have stabilized, with the raw material purchase price index rising by 1.3 percentage points to 50.8% and the factory price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 48.5% [6][17]. - Employment in the manufacturing sector also improved, with the employment index rising by 0.5 percentage points to 48.6%, the highest since May 2023 [6][18]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI increased slightly, with the service sector PMI declining by 0.3 percentage points to 50%, while the construction sector PMI surged by 3.4 percentage points to 52.7% [2][22]. - The construction sector's recovery is attributed to warming weather post-Spring Festival, the commencement of investment projects, and the gradual resumption of operations by enterprises [2][22]. Economic Support - The report highlights that fiscal policies are expected to expand further in 2025, providing additional support for economic growth in the first half of the year [2][24].