本轮信用债回调特征、空间及策略再校准

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent credit bond market has experienced a significant yield adjustment, with the duration and magnitude of this adjustment being the second highest since 2022 [2][8][19] - The adjustment has lasted for 14 days as of the end of February 2025, with the maximum drawdown of the medium to long-term pure bond fund index reaching 61 basis points [8][9][10] - The report highlights that the tightening of the funding environment is a common factor influencing the recent adjustments, similar to the situation observed in August to October 2023 [13][14] Group 2 - In the primary market, the issuance scale of credit bonds in February decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total of 44 credit bonds canceled, marking the fifth highest cancellation scale since 2022 [2][6][12] - The secondary market saw a decline in transaction activity for city investment bonds and financial bonds, while the turnover rate for industrial bonds increased [2][4][6] - The report suggests that the core variables affecting credit bond trends are the funding environment and institutional behavior, with limited potential for further significant increases in credit bond yields [17][19][20] Group 3 - The report recommends a strategy of focusing on short-duration bonds and selectively timing investments in medium to long-duration bonds, particularly after the release of policy signals from the National People's Congress [5][17] - It is anticipated that the adjustment space for short-duration non-financial credit bonds may be within 20 basis points, while medium to long-duration bonds are expected to have a limited adjustment space of around 10 basis points [14][19] - The report emphasizes that the demand for credit bonds remains supported by the net buying activity of wealth management products during the recent market adjustment [20][21]