Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-14 11:26Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the liquor industry, consistent with the previous rating [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The essence of the 2025 liquor strategy is to focus on market share logic, indicating a shift from price concentration to volume concentration, with individual stock excess returns stemming from the ability to gain market share [2][10]. - Short-term stock price movements have largely reflected market pessimism, and with a recovery in policy expectations, the valuation of the liquor sector is expected to continue to recover [6][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an "Overweight" position, highlighting companies that have demonstrated strong market share logic, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiuziyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu. It also identifies leading companies with potential for market share growth, including Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, among others [6][8]. Individual Stock Performance - The excess returns of liquor stocks are fundamentally driven by market share logic, with companies achieving sustained share increases in their respective regions and price segments [10][12]. - Specific observations include: - Su liquor brands like Jiuziyuan have shown significant market share increases in regions such as Jiangsu and Anhui [11]. - Anhui liquor brands like Yingjia and Gujing are entering a phase of market share competition, with notable performance in key markets [12]. - Shanxi Fenjiu has demonstrated significant national market share growth, particularly in the Shandong and Henan markets [12]. Market Share Logic - Companies that exhibit strong market share logic typically share common traits, such as having products in the early stages of their lifecycle and benefiting from scale effects [13]. - The differences in market share logic among individual stocks are influenced by channel dynamics and brand strength, with some brands still in the process of channel development [13][14]. Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is currently transitioning through three phases: total expansion, structural growth, and now a focus on volume concentration following a period of inventory adjustment [14]. - The report emphasizes that leading companies can achieve higher performance certainty through increased concentration, as evidenced by Moutai's successful strategy of trading price for volume [14].