国联民生研究：2025年3月金股组合

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for various companies, indicating a "Buy" or "Hold" recommendation based on their expected performance relative to market indices [33]. Core Insights - The market is expected to experience a rally from February to April, driven by themes, policies, and fundamentals. Historically, the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions shows strong market continuity, while post-Two Sessions, market performance may diverge based on policy strength and liquidity [5][8]. - Companies with strong cyclical assets may perform better if policies are robust, while weaker policies could lead to reduced market elasticity [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and macroeconomic trading as key factors influencing market dynamics [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Banking Financials: GF Securities (000776.SZ) - The company has significant advantages in large asset management, with its public fund subsidiaries contributing nearly 20% to net profit in the first half of 2024. The business is expected to benefit from increased trading activity in the markets [16]. - The investment banking risks are largely mitigated, and the company is poised for steady recovery in its underwriting business [16]. Home Appliances: Hisense Visual (600060.SH) - The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in Q4, with domestic sales outpacing international sales. It is leveraging high-end product lines to capture the growing MiniLED market [17]. Food and Beverage: Modern Dairy (1117.HK) - The company anticipates stabilization in raw milk prices in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing herd reduction [18]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Haida Group (002311.SZ) - The company is expected to maintain high growth in overseas markets, with its feed business poised for volume and profit increases [19]. Automotive: BYD (002594.SZ) - BYD is leading the industry with its smart driving initiatives and has launched multiple new models, enhancing its competitive edge [20]. Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) - The company is well-positioned to enter the Tesla robotics supply chain and has strong prospects in domestic high-end machine tool components [23]. Non-Ferrous Metals: Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and tightening supply, which will support copper prices [24]. Real Estate: Greentown China (3900.HK) - As a quality benchmark among top-tier real estate firms, the company is expected to see sales growth driven by improving demand in the new housing market [26]. Electronics: SMIC (688981.SH) - The company is the leading semiconductor foundry in China, with increasing demand for advanced processes amid ongoing trade tensions [27]. Computers: Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for domestic AI servers and is focusing on cost control to enhance profitability [29].