Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering with a target price of HKD 14.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 53% from the current price of HKD 9.11 [5][9]. Core Insights - CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering is positioned for a profit explosion due to the shipbuilding industry's cyclical recovery, rising new ship prices, and a strong order backlog of RMB 60 billion, with projected net profits of RMB 800 million and RMB 1.15 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][2]. - The company benefits from a robust order book, with subsidiaries holding around 4 million deadweight tons of orders sufficient to meet demand until 2028, supported by China's cost advantages and currency strength [2][9]. - The stock price has seen a significant correction since Q4 2024 due to issues related to the parent company's restructuring, but the fundamentals remain strong, and the report anticipates a recovery in stock price as earnings improve [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering are as follows: - 2022: RMB 12,795 million - 2023: RMB 16,146 million (up 26.2%) - 2024: RMB 21,249 million (up 31.6%) - 2025: RMB 24,832 million (up 16.9%) - 2026: RMB 28,065 million (up 13.0%) [3] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2022: RMB 688 million - 2023: RMB 48 million (down 93.0%) - 2024: RMB 420 million (up 774.3%) - 2025: RMB 804 million (up 91.3%) - 2026: RMB 1,152 million (up 43.3%) [3] - The report highlights a projected diluted earnings per share of RMB 0.57 for 2025 and RMB 0.82 for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.6 and 10.2 [3].
中船防务（00317）：顺风启航