| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601890 亚星锚链 | | 1.26亿 | 14.55% | -2582.68万 | -2.99% | -9991.68万 | -11.56% | | 600764 | 中国海防 | 3216.30万 | 7.10% | -2450.76万 | -5.41% | -765.55万 | -1.69% | | 300810 | 中科海讯 | 1813.25万 | 3.44% | -959.95万 | -1.82% | -853.30万 | -1.62% | | 300589 江龙船艇 | | 1568.72万 | 8.01% | -306.24万 | -1.56% | -1262.47万 | -6.45% | | 300065 | 海兰信 | 985.47万 | 1.02% | -1235.29万 | -1.28% | 249.82万 | 0.26% | | 30060 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense, a listed company under China Shipbuilding Group, is positioned to benefit from a tightening supply-demand balance in the shipbuilding industry, with significant growth in production planned for 2028, driven by strong replacement demand and favorable market conditions [1][2]. Industry Summary - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a persistent supply-demand tightness, with replacement of old ships as a core demand driver. The current replacement progress is just over half, and new environmental policies are expected to extend the replacement cycle [1]. - The global active shipyard count has significantly decreased since the last cycle, with current capacity at only 74% of the previous peak. Even if capacity recovers to 85% by 2030, it will still be insufficient to meet future delivery demands, supporting high ship prices [1]. - Recent changes in the Chinese shipbuilding market have shifted from a pessimistic outlook, with a notable decline in transaction volumes and ship prices earlier in the year due to investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office. However, following the release of revised policies, new orders for Chinese shipyards have rebounded, indicating a potential recovery in order volumes and ship prices [1]. Company Summary - China Shipbuilding Defense's core business is shipbuilding, which accounted for 92% of its revenue in the first half of 2025. The company is expected to see significant production increases in 2028, with Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International projected to have production increases of 58% and 34%, respectively, in CGT terms [2]. - The company benefits from a favorable cost structure, as many current orders were signed during a price upcycle in 2021, while steel procurement costs are declining. This creates a positive margin environment for the company [2]. - China Shipbuilding Group is actively addressing competition issues within the industry, with a commitment to resolve competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, which is a key development to monitor [2]. - The company has been rated "Buy" due to its expected performance in the global shipbuilding cycle and capacity release, with projected net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 11, and 7 times [2].

美国贸易代表办公室根据301条款对中国在海事、物流和造船领域进行调查并发布了政策公告，受制于此，年初以来船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌。2025年2月301初版 公司2028年排产较2027年提升幅度较大，远期业绩弹性充足 克拉克森数据显示，CGT口径下黄埔文冲、广船国际2028年排产较2027年增幅58%、34%，金额口径下，两船厂2028年排产较2027年增61%、41%。当前交付订单多签订于2021年开始的船价上 申万宏源发布研报称，首次覆盖中船防务（00317）给予"买入"评级。公司受益于全球造船周期上行与自身产能释放，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为11、17、28亿元，对应PE分别为18 申万宏源主要观点如下： 造船业供需紧张格局持续存在 需求端，老船替换为核心主线，全船型替换进度刚过半，替换需求充足，本轮新增环保政策影响，替换周期有望拉长。供给端，上轮周期后全球活跃船厂数量大幅下降，当前产能仅为上轮高点的 年初以来压制中国造船市场的悲观因素出现变化 责任编辑：史丽君 关注中船集团解决同业竞争问题的进展 中船集团重视解决同业竞争问题，曾于2025年1月公告对解决同业竞争的 ...

中船防务（00317）盘中涨超6%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.56%，现报15.59港元，成交额1.32亿港元。 中船防务拟于9月15日举行2025年半年度业绩说明会。中船防务中期业绩显示，上半年营业收入约101.73亿元，同比增长16.54%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约5.26亿元，同比增长258.4 申万宏源指出，中船防务是中船集团旗下从事船舶整装的上市公司，实控人为国资委，控股的黄埔文冲与参股的广船国际为核心资产。该行指出，造船业供需紧张格局持续存在；年初以来压制中 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shunwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on China Shipbuilding Defense (600685) with a "Buy" rating, citing benefits from the global shipbuilding cycle and capacity release, projecting net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 11, and 7, and a current market value/order book ratio of 0.42, significantly below the 10-year average of 0.53, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [1] Industry Overview - The shipbuilding industry continues to experience a tight supply-demand balance, driven by the need for replacing aging vessels, with the replacement progress just over half, and new environmental policies potentially extending the replacement cycle. The number of active shipyards has significantly decreased, with current capacity at only 74% of the previous peak, indicating that even a recovery to 85% by 2030 will not meet future delivery demands, thus supporting high ship prices [2] Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of the year, negative factors affecting the Chinese shipbuilding market have changed. Following investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office under Section 301, shipowners adopted a wait-and-see approach, leading to a significant drop in transaction volumes and declining ship prices. However, with the release of the initial Section 301 proposal in February 2025, new ship orders from China surpassed those from South Korea in March, and the second version of the proposal in April showed notable easing, suggesting a potential recovery in order volumes and ship prices [3] Company Performance - The production plan for 2028 shows a significant increase compared to 2027, with Clarkson data indicating a 58% and 34% increase in CGT terms for Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International, respectively. In monetary terms, the increases are 61% and 41%. Most current orders were signed during the price upcycle that began in 2021, and with steel procurement costs declining, the company is positioned for substantial performance elasticity due to the combination of capacity release and margin improvement [4] Competitive Landscape - China Shipbuilding Group is focused on addressing issues of intra-industry competition, having committed to resolving competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, with future progress being closely monitored [5]

美国贸易代表办公室根据301条款对中国在海事、物流和造船领域进行调查并发布了政策公告，受制于 此，年初以来船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌。2025年2月301初版方案出台后中 国新签造船订单在3月被韩国超过，4月301第二版方案较前一版已有明显松动，中国船厂新接订单量也 在月度层面重回第一水平，此前积压的造船需求有望释放，重新带动订单量及船价上行。 公司2028年排产较2027年提升幅度较大，远期业绩弹性充足 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，首次覆盖中船防务(00317)给予"买入"评级。公司受益于全球 造船周期上行与自身产能释放，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为11、17、28亿元，对应PE分别为 18、11、7倍，当前市值/手持订单金额(PO)为0.42倍，显著低于近10年均值(0.53倍)，处于历史低位。结 合高价订单交付提速、老船替换需求充足及同业竞争解决预期，公司业绩弹性与估值修复空间充足。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 造船业供需紧张格局持续存在 需求端，老船替换为核心主线，全船型替换进度刚过半，替换需求充足，本轮新增环保政策影响，替换 周期有望拉长。供给端，上轮周期后 ...

中船防务（600685）(00317)再涨超6%，截至发稿，涨5.7%，报15.76港元，成交额1.13亿港元。 申万宏源指出，中船防务是中船集团旗下从事船舶整装的上市公司，实控人为国资委，控股的黄埔文冲 与参股的广船国际为核心资产。该行指出，造船业供需紧张格局持续存在；年初以来压制中国造船市场 的悲观因素出现变化；公司2028 年排产较2027 年提升幅度较大，远期业绩弹性充足。此外，中船集团 重视解决同业竞争问题，曾于2025年1 月公告对解决同业竞争的承诺。集团承诺五年内解决黄埔文冲与 中国船舶的同业竞争问题，后续进展值得关注。 消息面上，中船防务拟于9月15日举行2025年半年度业绩说明会。中船防务中期业绩显示，上半年营业 收入约101.73亿元，同比增长16.54%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约5.26亿元，同比增长258.46%。 值得注意的是，中国船舶吸收合并中国重工（601989）方案此前获批，中船系重组步伐加快。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the stock price of China Shipbuilding Defense (00317), which rose over 6% and is currently trading at 15.76 HKD with a transaction volume of 113 million HKD [1] - China Shipbuilding Defense plans to hold a semi-annual performance briefing for 2025 on September 15, indicating a proactive approach to investor relations [1] - The company's mid-year performance shows a revenue of approximately 10.173 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 526 million CNY, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 258.46% [1] Group 2 - The approval of the merger plan between China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry has accelerated the restructuring process within the China Shipbuilding system [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, China Shipbuilding Defense is a listed company under the China Shipbuilding Group, with its core assets being Huangpu Wenchong and the partially-owned Guangzhou Shipyard International [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a persistent supply-demand imbalance, and the pessimistic factors that have suppressed the Chinese shipbuilding market since the beginning of the year are changing [1] - The company's production schedule for 2028 is expected to show a significant increase compared to 2027, indicating ample long-term performance elasticity [1] - The China Shipbuilding Group is committed to resolving issues of competition within the industry, having announced a commitment to address competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, with future developments being noteworthy [1]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3875 | 1.65 | 6.24 | 2.91 | | 深证综指 | 2469 | 2.54 | 9.63 | 5.89 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 2.56 | 11.22 | 16.52 | | 中盘指数 | 2.63 | 12.61 | 17.62 | | 小盘指数 | 2.46 | 7.83 | 13.57 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 元件Ⅱ | 10.09 | 32.61 | 80.19 | | 通信设备 | 9.25 | 47.41 | 100.31 | | 半导体 | 5.83 | 22.54 | 17.95 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 消费电子 | 5.79 | 26.14 | 29.14 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the global shipbuilding cycle and its own capacity release, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion CNY respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 11, and 7 times [8]. - The current market capitalization to order book ratio stands at 0.42 times, significantly below the 10-year average of 0.53 times, indicating a historical low valuation [8]. - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in production in 2028 compared to 2027, with significant growth in order volumes and profit margins anticipated [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a listed entity under the China Shipbuilding Group, primarily engaged in shipbuilding, marine engineering, and electromechanical equipment manufacturing, with shipbuilding as its core business [7]. - The company’s revenue from shipbuilding accounted for 92% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [7]. Market Dynamics - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, driven by the need to replace aging vessels and the impact of new environmental regulations [7]. - The report notes a shift in sentiment in the Chinese shipbuilding market, with new orders rebounding after a period of decline due to trade tensions [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 16.146 billion CNY in 2023, 19.402 billion CNY in 2024, 21.727 billion CNY in 2025, 23.820 billion CNY in 2026, and 29.047 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 26.2%, 20.2%, 12.0%, 9.6%, and 21.9% respectively [6]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve from 6.1% in 2023 to 16.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [6]. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing competition within the China Shipbuilding Group, with commitments made to resolve competitive issues within five years [7]. - The company’s core shipyards, Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International, are highlighted as key assets with significant production capabilities [7][33]. Order Book and Production Capacity - The report indicates that the company’s order book is robust, with significant increases in production capacity anticipated for 2028, driven by high-value orders and favorable cost conditions [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the market, with a focus on environmentally friendly ship designs and technologies [38].