银行业2025年3月月报：息差降幅收窄，险资配置需求不减-2025-03-07

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2][31]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the narrowing decline in interest margins and the sustained demand for insurance capital allocation are significant trends in the banking sector [7][30]. - The banking sector's overall valuation has slightly increased, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.30X as of February 28, 2025, reflecting a 67% discount compared to the A-share market [10][29]. - The report anticipates that insurance capital will continue to be a crucial allocation force for bank stocks in 2025, driven by the stable and robust earnings of high-dividend assets [30][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In February, the banking sector recorded a decline of -0.99%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.15 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 2.90 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 primary industries [9][11]. - The banking sector's average decline was -0.56% for state-owned banks and -0.49% for national joint-stock banks, with Qilu Bank leading with a gain of 4.15% [11][13]. Market Rates - The yield on AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, with 1M, 3M, and 4M yields at 1.95%, 2.12%, and 2.07%, respectively, marking increases of 25, 27, and 28 basis points from January [16][22]. - The average interbank borrowing rate rose to 1.95% in February, up 9 basis points month-on-month and 10 basis points year-on-year [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks with stable earnings and high dividends, such as China Construction Bank, while also monitoring core assets like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank as economic expectations improve [30][31]. - The anticipated policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth and the resilience of the banking sector's fundamentals are expected to enhance absolute return potential in a cyclical recovery [30][31].