交通运输行业周报0303：关税风波持续，铁路建设再提速-2025-03-16

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the transportation sector, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and 吉祥航空 (603885.SH) [7]. Core Insights - The airport sector has priced in the pessimism regarding the reduction of duty rates in the new duty-free agreements. The recovery of international passenger traffic remains a key focus for the airport sector. A package of policies is expected to drive macroeconomic recovery and boost domestic consumption, providing momentum for increased average transaction values in the commercial sector by 2025 [5][6]. - In the cross-border logistics sector, domestic demand is weak, and local manufacturing is oversupplied, making exports a critical focus. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce is expected to accelerate the global expansion of domestic brands, benefiting cross-border logistics [5]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing growth due to the rapid development of new e-commerce formats, with leading express companies focusing on differentiated competitive advantages [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Airline and Airport - As of December 2024, major airlines in China have domestic ASK recovery rates compared to 2019 of 132.45% for Air China, 108.17% for Southern Airlines, and 153.98% for Spring Airlines [22]. - Major airports have also shown recovery in passenger throughput, with Baiyun Airport at 104.72% and Shenzhen Airport at 125.66% compared to 2019 [36]. 2. Cross-Border Logistics - The report highlights the growth of cross-border e-commerce as a new trade format, with domestic brands optimizing their product structures for global expansion [5]. 3. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry achieved a revenue of 137.89 billion yuan in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.60%, with a business volume of 17.8 billion pieces, up 22.30% year-on-year [9]. 4. Shipping and Ports - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) reported a value of 1515 points as of February 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.00% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.44% [41]. - The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) was reported at 885 points, down 2.85% week-on-week and down 23.44% year-on-year [53]. 5. Rail and Road - In December 2024, railway passenger volume reached 297 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, while freight volume increased by 8.46% to 4.59 million tons [70].