流动性与利率策略周报：流动性出现积极变化，继续推荐长债的交易性机会-2025-03-12

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive change in liquidity, continuing to recommend trading opportunities in long-term bonds, specifically 10Y and 30Y government bonds, based on expectations from the upcoming Two Sessions policy [1][9][4] - Since the beginning of 2025, interbank liquidity has been tightening, primarily due to a continuous reduction in net funding from major banks and increased net payments of government bonds, leading to a migration of funds towards the fiscal system [4][7][8] - The interbank repo market has experienced a "volume reduction and price increase" trend, with the DR001 rate rising from 1.55% on January 2 to 1.86% by February 28, while the transaction volume in the repo market decreased from 6.6 trillion to 4.2 trillion [4][7][8] Group 2 - In the last week of February 2025, there was a positive change in supply and demand in the interbank repo market, with the total market balance of pledged repo bonds increasing from 9.2 trillion to 9.5 trillion, indicating some funds are optimistic about future market conditions [8][16] - The net funding from major banks rose to approximately 1.5 trillion, marking a new high for February, while the Shibor 3M rate reached 1.92%, indicating ongoing pressure on the banking system's liabilities [8][16][18] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the market increased to 106.4%, with non-legal person products reaching 112.4%, suggesting a higher risk appetite among market participants [18][20] Group 3 - The report provides a review of the interbank liquidity supply and demand, indicating that net funding from major banks increased by 1,857 billion, while the total market balance of pledged repo bonds rose by 3,274 billion [16][17] - The interbank certificate of deposit market showed mixed results, with the issuance volume for the week totaling 720.7 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [21][23] - The report also highlights the yield spreads between various financial instruments, noting that the yield on 1-year AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit was -15 basis points compared to the R007 rate, indicating a tightening spread [28][30]