2025年全国两会点评：政策目标总体符合预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth signal with a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, which aligns with market expectations [9][17][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the effectiveness of the national innovation system, reflecting a shift in focus from previous years [11][28][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Goals Meet Expectations - The government work report outlines the overall requirements and policy direction for economic and social development in 2025, with a focus on stable growth and proactive fiscal policies [4][8][16]. - The GDP growth target of around 5% is seen as a necessary measure to stabilize employment and ensure income growth for residents, especially after recent economic slowdowns [9][17][23]. 1.1 GDP Target Signals Stable Growth - The report sets a GDP growth target of approximately 5%, which is consistent with previous years and aims to address the negative output gap [9][17][23]. 1.2 Fiscal Arrangements Maintain Proactive Tone - The fiscal policy continues to adopt a more proactive stance, with a proposed deficit rate of 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a local special bond issuance target of 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan [10][26][27]. 2. Emphasis on Expanding Domestic Demand and Enhancing Innovation System - The report elevates the importance of expanding domestic demand to the top priority, with detailed plans to boost consumption and investment [11][28][29]. - The government aims to support consumption through measures such as issuing 300 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing old consumer goods [29][31]. 2.1 Importance of Expanding Domestic Demand - The report highlights the need to enhance consumer spending and investment, with specific measures to support low-income groups and improve consumption scenarios [29][31]. 2.2 Focus on Enhancing Innovation System Effectiveness - The report includes initiatives to improve the national innovation system, emphasizing high-level technological development and the cultivation of new industries such as commercial aerospace and quantum technology [32][33].