Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.23 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.90 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% in revenue but a decrease of 7% in net profit, primarily due to declining domestic rental prices. However, overseas expansion and growth in light asset management are expected to drive continued revenue growth [1]. - The company maintains a leading position in equipment management, with a management scale of 215,000 high-altitude operation platforms, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The domestic market share for high-altitude operation platforms reached 34.4% [2]. - The company has optimized its financing structure, achieving a historical low financing cost with an average financing rate of 3.99%. Capital expenditures for 2024 reached RMB 7.10 billion, a significant increase of 249.8% year-on-year, aimed at optimizing the domestic fleet structure and expanding overseas equipment and new categories [3]. - The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of over 27 times, reaching RMB 390 million, accounting for 3.4% of total revenue. The overseas gross profit margin was 43.7%, significantly higher than the domestic margin [4]. - Due to the decline in rental prices affecting gross margins, the company has adjusted its operating lease business gross margin forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.95 billion, RMB 1.03 billion, and RMB 1.13 billion respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.90 billion, down 7% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from operating leasing services, engineering technical services, and asset management services for 2024 was RMB 46.2 billion, RMB 37.5 billion, and RMB 32.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.1%, +26.5%, and +113.0% [2]. Capital Expenditure and Financing - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 was RMB 7.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.8%, aimed at enhancing the domestic fleet and expanding into overseas markets [3]. - The financing cost reached a historical low with an average financing rate of 3.99%, contributing to improved cash flow [3]. Overseas Expansion and New Products - The overseas business revenue grew over 27 times to RMB 390 million, representing 3.4% of total revenue, with plans to increase overseas asset management scale to approximately RMB 10 billion by 2027 [4]. - New product categories, such as industrial air conditioners, generated RMB 220 million in revenue, marking a growth of over 800% year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, predicting net profits of RMB 0.95 billion and RMB 1.03 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 23% and 27% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price is set at HKD 2.23, based on a 7x PE ratio for 2025, considering the need for liquidity improvement and the pressure on domestic leasing business margins [5].
宏信建发（09930）：多品类及海外扩张有望带来新增长