Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 347 billion, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1]. - The core product categories, particularly digital appliances, saw a robust growth of 15.8% year-on-year, driven by nationwide trade-in policies [1]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue in Q1 2025 due to the expansion of subsidized categories [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 increased by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, outperforming market expectations, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.3% [2]. - The company is entering the ride-hailing and food delivery sectors, which may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency, although increased subsidy investments could introduce uncertainty regarding overall profit margin improvements [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.66 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.05 billion in FY25E, reflecting a growth rate of 15.3% [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.09 billion in FY25E, indicating a growth rate of 45.1% [4][6]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to stabilize around 4.1% for the full year, with medium to long-term targets relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2][4].
京东集团-SW（09618）：收入重回双位数增长，新业务对利润率带来不确定性