宏观经济周报：美欧预期扭转，国内政策积极-2025-03-10

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in the index by over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index [35]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the US service sector, but concerns about "stagflation" are resurfacing due to significant declines in consumer spending and persistent inflation pressures [1]. - In Europe, while service inflation has eased, overall CPI growth has exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery in risk appetite within the Eurozone [1]. - Domestic manufacturing and service PMI have shown seasonal recovery post-holiday, but sustainability of this recovery remains a concern [3]. - The government has indicated a proactive stance on economic policies, emphasizing the importance of consumption, technological innovation, and stability in real estate and stock markets [3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The US economy is facing challenges with consumer spending showing the largest decline in four years, while inflation remains difficult to control [1]. - European economic indicators are stabilizing, supported by expectations of loose fiscal policies in Germany [1]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic PMI for manufacturing and services has rebounded, but future sustainability needs monitoring [3]. - The government has set clear economic growth and inflation targets, with a focus on flexible policies to support consumption and innovation [3]. High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are recovering, while prices for various commodities show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and non-ferrous metals generally rising [3].