海外周报：当欧洲开始扩支-2025-03-12

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Concerns about recession have eased slightly, but economic cooling may continue. Despite weak manufacturing PMI data, service sector PMI rebounded unexpectedly, and non-farm payroll data was only slightly below market expectations. This has led to a recovery in US Treasury yields, with the market expecting the March FOMC meeting to maintain interest rates. However, uncertainties such as fiscal tightening, government layoffs, and tariff disruptions may continue to drive economic volatility [4][6]. - Fiscal policy may see marginal changes. A short-term spending bill to maintain government funding is set to expire on March 14, with a new proposal from House Republicans expected to extend funding until September. This proposal includes a $6 billion increase in veterans' medical care and cuts to non-defense spending, but may face opposition from House Democrats [6]. - Germany's expansionary fiscal policy is boosting the euro, with the CDU and SPD expected to form a coalition government that aims to lift the defense spending cap and create a €500 billion infrastructure fund to stimulate the economy. This proposal is anticipated to be submitted to the German parliament next week [6]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates but this has not hindered the euro's upward trend. The ECB's recent decision to lower rates by 25 basis points has led to a mixed market reaction, with expectations for economic growth being adjusted downwards [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The US added 151,000 non-farm jobs in February, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4% [33]. - The US manufacturing PMI for February recorded at 50.3%, below the expected 50.8%, while the service sector PMI exceeded expectations at 53.5% [33]. Market Performance - Global stock markets showed varied performance, with the S&P 500 down 3.1% for the week and up 1.9% year-to-date. The German DAX rose by 2% for the week and 15.6% year-to-date [10][11]. - Major commodities saw WTI crude oil prices drop by 5.7% for the week, while LME copper prices increased by 3.1% [10][11]. Central Bank Dynamics - The report highlights various central bank officials' comments regarding monetary policy, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate changes amid rising inflation expectations and economic uncertainties [15][17].