建筑装饰行业周观点：专项债和赤字率提升，基建投资稳健增长可期-2025-03-19

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, driven by increased government spending and infrastructure investment [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds and an increase in the deficit ratio are expected to promote stable growth in infrastructure investment, which remains a crucial driver for economic stability [3][4]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at various investment projects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, which is expected to boost demand for housing [4][6]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: debt reduction driving improvements in state-owned construction enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative accelerating international engineering projects, and high-dividend state-owned construction enterprises presenting attractive investment opportunities [5][7][8]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on expanding effective investment [12]. - The report outlines plans for a more proactive fiscal policy, including a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan, up 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [12]. Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a decline of 0.22% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.43% [13][14]. - The report notes that the construction sector's PE (TTM) is 9.53, below its historical average, indicating potential undervaluation [17][20]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks the issuance of special bonds, noting that 609.76 billion yuan in new special bonds were issued by March 7, 2025, accounting for 13.86% of the annual plan [25][27]. - The report highlights that the majority of special bond funds are directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, as well as transportation projects [27].