2025年国防支出预算点评：国防支出预算增长7.2%，国防建设有望稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the defense industry, consistent with the previous rating [8]. Core Insights - The national defense budget for 2025 is set at 1,784.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, which is higher than the expected GDP growth target of 5% [3][8]. - The defense budget growth rate has remained stable over the past nine years, with the proportion of defense spending to GDP still having room for improvement compared to countries like the US and Japan [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the defense budget as a foundation for modernization and equipment development, with a consistent growth trend observed from 2016 to 2024 [3][8]. Summary by Sections National Defense Budget Overview - The 2025 defense budget is 1,784.7 billion yuan, marking a 7.2% increase, which aligns with the stable growth trend observed in previous years [3][8]. - The defense budget growth has been consistent, with annual increases of 7.6%, 7%, 8.1%, 7.5%, 6.6%, 6.8%, 7.1%, and 7.2% from 2016 to 2024 [8]. Comparison with Other Countries - Japan's defense budget for 2025 is projected at 8.7 trillion yen, a 9.4% increase, while the US defense budget for the fiscal year 2024 is approximately 886 billion USD, accounting for 3% of its GDP [8]. - China's defense spending as a percentage of GDP has remained below 1.5%, indicating significant potential for growth compared to global averages and specific countries [8]. Strategic Implications - The report highlights the ongoing modernization of the military and defense capabilities as a priority, with a focus on implementing Xi Jinping's military strategies and enhancing combat readiness [8]. - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for transitioning from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th, with expectations for steady growth in defense spending to support modernization goals [8]. Recommended Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies within the aerospace and aviation supply chain, recommending specific stocks such as AVIC Optoelectronics, Aerospace Electric, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, and others [8].