煤炭行业周报：煤价见底回升，预计4月进入上升通道-2025-03-12
Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-12 05:23

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover after hitting a bottom at the end of March, with a projected rise to over 770 RMB/ton in April due to increasing non-electric coal demand and the upcoming summer peak season in June [3][4] - The report recommends key companies in the sector, including China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also highlighting the coking coal sector with recommendations for leaders like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates that the demand for non-electric coal will gradually recover following the end of the heating season in March, with a significant increase expected in June due to seasonal demand [4] - On the supply side, domestic incremental capacity is limited, with projections indicating only a 0.6% increase in new capacity by 2025 in key coal-producing regions [4] Price Trends - As of March 7, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 698 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2 RMB/ton (-0.3%) from the previous week [12] - The report notes that the price of Q5500 coal is expected to stabilize and potentially rise to 770 RMB/ton in June due to seasonal demand [4] Coking Coal Market - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1390 RMB/ton as of March 7, 2025 [46] - The report highlights that the price of coking coal is closely tied to the steel industry's demand, with current prices indicating a potential bottom [5] Inventory Levels - As of March 8, 2025, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao increased by 83,000 tons (12.5%), while southern port inventories decreased by 134,200 tons (-3.6%) [34] - The report indicates that overall inventory levels are low, which may support price recovery in the coming months [4] Market Performance - The coal sector showed a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the broader market, with notable performers including Anyuan Coal Industry and Electric Power Energy [90]