季节性因素致通胀走弱，强力稳增长政策稳定预期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining a balance between short-term stability and long-term transformation, reflecting a pragmatic yet challenging policy stance [1]. - The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, marking a historical high for the two sessions, which aligns with the direction of a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The issuance of special bonds and local government bonds is expected to reach 6.2 trillion yuan this year, significantly higher than the previous year's total of 4.9 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in effective fiscal spending [3]. - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with expectations for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates throughout the year [4]. - CPI is projected to show a "high-low-high" trend throughout the year, with an expected year-end CPI increase of around 1.2% [12]. - PPI is anticipated to narrow its decline throughout the year, with a forecasted annual decrease of -1.2% [14]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The government work report emphasizes a combination of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" to stabilize growth expectations [1][4]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance domestic demand through increased public spending and special bond issuance [2][3]. Inflation and Price Trends - February 2025 CPI showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.7%, with core CPI also negative for the first time since January 2021 [11]. - The CPI is expected to rise later in the year due to strong growth policies and increased consumer spending [12]. Trade and Export Performance - Exports in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 8.4%, indicating a mixed trade environment [15]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on exports has not yet fully materialized, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [17]. Market Performance - The REITs market experienced a limited rebound, with the CSI REITs index up by 1.14% [18]. - Market liquidity has decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 787 million yuan [19].