GS(SH:601500) Founder Securities·2025-03-12 03:54Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][9][16]. Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in raw material prices, combined with the ramp-up of production at three bases, is expected to positively impact the company's performance throughout the year [1][5]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth from 2024 to 2026, driven by the expansion of its production capacity in domestic and international markets [5][6][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The company has shown a performance decline of 21% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. Raw Material Prices - Recent declines in key raw material prices are noted, with natural rubber averaging 16,769 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down 1.5% from Q4 2024, and carbon black at 7,547 RMB/ton, down 4.2% [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 75.5 billion, 106.5 billion, and 124.7 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 41%, and 17% respectively [6][7]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 4.6 billion, 9.1 billion, and 12.2 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year increases of 115%, 96%, and 34% [6][9]. Business Segmentation - Full steel tire revenue is forecasted to be 3.2 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 25.9%, 14.6%, and 9.4% [8]. - Half steel tire revenue is expected to reach 4.3 billion, 6.7 billion, and 8.1 billion RMB, with growth rates of 89.4%, 57.2%, and 20.7% [8]. - Engineering tire revenue is projected to be 0.6 billion, 2.4 billion, and 3.2 billion RMB, with significant growth anticipated [8]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report compares the company with peers and predicts a PE ratio of 18, 9, and 7 for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [9][10].