NIFD季报

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall economic operation in China is stable and improving, particularly after the timely deployment of a package of incremental policies that boosted social confidence and led to a significant rebound in major economic indicators [4] - For 2025, China's GDP growth is expected to be around 4.9%, with inflation rates for CPI and PPI projected to remain stable [40][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in light of increasing external uncertainties, particularly due to rising international trade protectionism [4][23] Summary by Sections 1. Review of China's Economic Operation in 2024 - In 2024, China's GDP reached approximately 135 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates showing fluctuations [8] - The CPI increased by 0.2%, while the PPI decreased by 2.2%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices [9][10] - The service sector's growth slowed significantly, contributing to the overall economic slowdown [11][34] 2. External Environment and Issues for 2025 - The report highlights the potential impact of rising tariffs and trade protectionism on China's exports, particularly from the U.S. [23][24] - It notes that the trade surplus with the U.S. was significant, and any changes in trade policy could affect China's economic growth [24] - The report anticipates that net exports will contribute less to economic growth in 2025 compared to previous years [21][39] 3. Basic Trends and Policy Discussion for 2025 - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to rebound slightly, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing investments, while real estate investment is projected to decline at a slower rate [38] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies will be more proactive, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive and monetary policies remaining moderately loose [42] - The anticipated GDP growth of 4.9% for 2025 is based on a combination of investment, net export changes, and a gradual increase in consumption [40][41]