LYCG(SH:600491) Founder Securities·2025-03-12 03:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longyuan Construction, predicting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][14]. Core Views - Longyuan Construction has updated its private placement plan, with a slight reduction in the number of shares to be issued and the total fundraising amount, indicating a stable path towards approval [4][5]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce its losses in 2024, with a projected net profit range of -400 million to -600 million RMB, compared to -1.311 billion RMB in 2023 [5][9]. - The entry of Hangzhou Investment as a major shareholder is anticipated to enhance the company's financial stability and reduce financing costs, potentially leading to a turnaround in profitability [6][5]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for Longyuan Construction is projected to recover from 9.004 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.667 billion RMB in 2024, with further growth expected to 11.001 billion RMB in 2025 and 16.147 billion RMB in 2026 [9][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 199 million RMB in 2025 and 910 million RMB in 2026, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [9][11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.86 RMB in 2023 to 0.13 RMB in 2025 and 0.59 RMB in 2026 [9][11]. Market Position and Opportunities - Longyuan Construction's current order backlog is estimated at 8.705 billion RMB, which is relatively low compared to its annual revenue, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [6]. - The company has secured several local projects in Hangzhou, which could enhance its market presence and operational capacity [6][5]. - The upcoming private placement is expected to position Longyuan Construction as the only publicly listed platform with top-tier construction qualifications in Hangzhou, opening up further project opportunities [6].