供给收缩，煤价有望止跌

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a slight increase of 0.45% recently, but it underperformed compared to the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.94 percentage points [5] - Domestic and international thermal coal prices are under pressure, with domestic prices at 700 RMB/ton, down 1.41% week-on-week, and international prices showing declines as well [6] - Supply of thermal coal is tightening due to safety inspections and some mines temporarily halting production, while demand is expected to decline as heating season ends [6] - Coking coal supply remains stable, with domestic prices holding steady at 1200 RMB/ton, while downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [7] - The report suggests that despite expected declines in thermal coal demand, seasonal recovery in non-electric sectors (like steel and chemicals) may offset this, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.18 times, within the 48.14% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.18 times, within the 26.22% percentile [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal prices are weak, with a current market price of 700 RMB/ton, and international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal also declining [6] - The supply of thermal coal is slightly contracting due to safety measures and inspections, while demand is expected to decrease as the heating season concludes [6] - Coking coal prices are stable domestically, with a price of 1200 RMB/ton, and there is a gradual recovery in downstream demand as construction activities resume [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, as well as coking coal companies with low valuations and improving operational conditions, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8]