公募REITs投资策略：从政策红利到配置价值

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition of public REITs in China from policy-driven growth to value-based investment strategies, highlighting the significant increase in the diversity of underlying assets and the market's maturation [1][6][8] - The total issuance of public REITs reached 29 in 2024, with a total fundraising scale of 65.5 billion yuan, pushing the market's total scale to over 180 billion yuan [3][9] - The report identifies structural opportunities within the REITs market, particularly in consumer and logistics REITs, which are expected to outperform due to market-driven pricing mechanisms [3][29] Market Review: Policy Framework and Cycle Evolution - Since the pilot launch of infrastructure REITs in April 2020, the policy framework has evolved from initial trials to a comprehensive system that includes issuance review, asset operation, and financial treatment [6][7] - The policy focus has shifted towards expanding the pilot scope and improving supporting regulations, with significant developments occurring from 2021 to 2023 [7][8] - By February 2025, the cumulative number of public REITs listed reached 65, with a total market size of 171.1 billion yuan, marking a more than fivefold increase from the initial issuance scale in 2021 [9][11] Recent Trends - The report notes a significant increase in subscription enthusiasm for public REITs, with a record public investor subscription multiple of 1192 times for a recent offering [19] - The strategic investor participation rate has risen from 67.4% in 2021 to 76.3% in 2024, indicating a growing preference for long-term asset allocation [19][28] - The report highlights a decoupling between the recent price increases in REITs and the underlying revenue performance, suggesting that market dynamics may be increasingly driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental performance [29] Underlying Assets: Macro Characteristics and Future Outlook - Consumer infrastructure is identified as a direct beneficiary of consumption recovery, while logistics REITs are driven by e-commerce and retail demand [4][19] - The report discusses the resilience of affordable rental housing REITs, which maintain high occupancy rates but exhibit limited income elasticity due to rent control policies [4][19] - The energy infrastructure and ecological protection sectors are noted as sensitive to interest rate changes, impacting their revenue stability [4][19] Valuation and Performance Analysis - The report indicates a divergence in valuation within the REITs market, with 39 out of 61 listed REITs having a price-to-value (PV) multiple exceeding 1, suggesting potential premium risks for some projects [3][29] - The overall revenue of the REITs market has shown a declining trend, with year-on-year revenue growth rates of -4.65% and -5.14% recorded in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, respectively [29][30] - Specific sectors, such as logistics and park infrastructure, exhibit significant performance variability, with some projects achieving substantial revenue growth through expansion efforts [29][30]