金属行业周报：行业基本面边际改善，关税政策持续扰动市场-2025-03-12

Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [1] Core Views - The marginal improvement in the industry fundamentals is noted, with ongoing tariff policies causing market disruptions [1] - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased funding for construction sites and warmer weather, although macroeconomic factors and overseas tariffs remain concerns [1][17] - Copper supply is tight, supporting prices, while domestic inventory has slightly decreased; future demand performance will be crucial for price movements [1][37] - Aluminum prices are supported by expectations of macroeconomic easing and solar energy installations, but overseas tariffs and trade policies pose risks [1][44] - Gold prices are supported by various factors, including increasing reserves in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a focus on the progress of negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][48] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Supply has decreased, and inventory continues to decline, indicating a marginal improvement in fundamentals [17] - As of March 7, the total steel inventory was 18.58 million tons, down 0.93% from the previous period and down 24.02% year-on-year [26] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are negative, but have shown some improvement compared to the previous period [35] Copper Industry - High copper prices are suppressing demand, with slow recovery in downstream industries [36] - As of March 7, LME copper prices were $9,700 per ton, up 3.21% from the previous period [41] - Domestic copper inventory has slightly decreased, indicating potential upward pressure on prices if demand improves [37] Aluminum Industry - As of March 7, LME aluminum prices were $2,700 per ton, reflecting a 2.10% increase from the previous period [45] - The market is cautious, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach [44] Gold Industry - As of March 7, COMEX gold prices were $2,917.70 per ounce, up 1.76% from the previous period [48] - Various geopolitical factors and central bank purchases are supporting gold prices [48] Lithium Industry - The supply of lithium is expected to increase as some lithium salt plants resume normal production [2] - Policies such as "trade-in" and charging infrastructure subsidies are anticipated to stimulate downstream demand [2] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - As of March 7, light rare earth prices showed a slight decline, while heavy rare earth prices varied [56] - Tungsten and other minor metal prices have also seen slight decreases [60]