Hesai-HESAI（HSAI）：4Q24率先盈利，指引2025年强劲增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company HSAI.US, with a target price raised to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant milestone by recording its first profitable quarter in Q4 2024, with revenue of RMB 720 million, a 28% year-over-year increase, and a gross margin of 39.0% [10][12]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach RMB 30-35 billion, with substantial growth in non-GAAP net profit and GAAP profit projected between RMB 200-350 million [10][12]. - The domestic market for intelligent driving is accelerating, and the company is expanding its overseas customer base, which is expected to support continued growth in ADAS lidar shipments [10][12]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in its robotics applications, with expectations of nearly 200,000 units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to its gross margin [10][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 1,877 million in 2023, RMB 2,077 million in 2024, RMB 3,058 million in 2025, RMB 4,231 million in 2026, and RMB 6,434 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][11]. - The expected net profit (loss) transitions from a loss of RMB 476 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1,054 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate slightly, starting at 35.2% in 2023 and expected to be 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 16.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a target price of$ 20.0 [10][14][15]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently estimated at $2,034 million, with an average trading volume of$ 51.9 million over the past three months [5][10].