2月大类资产：债市逆风期积极拥抱产业趋势

Group 1 - The report indicates that in February, the performance of major asset classes showed a trend of "stocks > commodities > bonds," with A-share indices rising, particularly in the TMT and machinery sectors, while defensive sectors like resources and utilities saw declines [4][10] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 9 basis points to 1.72%, with the short-term bond index performing relatively well, while the government bond index and credit bond index recorded returns of -0.8% and -0.2% respectively [4][13] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a "spring rally," driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and humanoid robots, while defensive sectors like banks and utilities faced declines [5][22] Group 2 - The macroeconomic analysis reveals that the overall economy is stabilizing, with January's social financing showing a strong start, and February's inflation falling below seasonal expectations, marking the first negative year-on-year core CPI in nearly four years [5][34] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2 in February, indicating a return to expansion, with production and demand indices also showing improvement [41] - The fiscal policy is described as proactive, with a focus on issuing replacement bonds and increasing local government debt limits, which is expected to support economic development [45] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to face short-term pressure, with a recommendation to be defensive, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on bonds [6][8] - The stock market is anticipated to continue benefiting from clear industrial trends, with structural opportunities in sectors like artificial intelligence and humanoid robots [6][8] - Commodity prices are expected to experience high volatility, particularly in gold, while Brent crude oil prices are projected to remain weak amid geopolitical uncertainties [6][8]