美国住宅市场2024年回顾及展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the U.S. residential market in 2025, suggesting potential price softening for existing homes and a stable increase in new home market share [1]. Core Insights - The "rate lock effect" continues to be a core issue affecting the supply and sales of existing homes, with a need to monitor the impact of interest rate cuts on the market [1]. - Existing home transactions may gradually shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, potentially leading to price adjustments and marginal improvements in housing affordability [1]. - Developers are expected to increase the supply of lower-priced housing to enhance affordability, with new home sales and market share projected to grow steadily in 2025 [1]. Sales & Prices - In 2024, U.S. home sales slightly declined under the dual pressures of high prices and high interest rates, with total transactions at 4.746 million units, down 0.4% year-on-year [3]. - New home sales remained relatively stable at 682,000 units, up 2.4% year-on-year, while existing home sales fell to 4.064 million units, marking a historical low [8]. - The median price for new homes was $420,000, a 1.2% decrease from 2023, while existing home prices reached a median of $401,000, up 4.5% year-on-year [15]. Supply & Interest Rates - By the end of 2024, total housing inventory in the U.S. increased by 14.3% year-on-year, with existing home inventory remaining tight at 1.15 million units, up 16.2% year-on-year [21]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained high at 6.96% as of January 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on potential homebuyers [27][28]. Challenges in the Market - The U.S. housing market faces significant challenges, including a supply gap of 3.7 million units and a high percentage of homeowners unwilling to sell due to low existing mortgage rates [5][33]. - The affordability crisis is exacerbated by high home prices and interest rates, with the housing purchase index nearing historical lows [20]. 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that existing home prices may soften, transitioning the market dynamics towards a buyer's market, influenced by the lengthening transaction periods and increasing new listings [37][40]. - The share of new homes is expected to increase as builders focus on smaller, more affordable units, with a projected 13.8% growth in single-family home starts in 2025 [42].