有色金属：USGS2024年数据洞察：产量、储量分化，聚焦关键矿产

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The global production of base metals shows a divergent trend, with significant challenges in resource continuity for China, particularly in copper, aluminum, and lead [2][14] - The supply of cobalt is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which controls a significant portion of global production and reserves, impacting pricing dynamics [4][25] - The report highlights the increasing importance of rare metals such as tungsten, antimony, and rare earths, with China maintaining a dominant position in production and reserves [5][29] Summary by Sections Base Metals - Global copper production is projected at 23 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 1.77%, primarily driven by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia [2][18] - China's aluminum production is expected to reach 43 million tons, accounting for 59.72% of global output, with a growth of 2.86% [2][18] - Lead production is forecasted to decline by 1.60% to 4.3 million tons, while zinc production is also expected to decrease by 0.83% to 1.2 million tons [2][18] Precious Metals - Global gold production is anticipated to grow by 1.54% to 3,300 tons, with China and Russia as major producers [3][24] - Silver production is expected to decline by 1.96% to 25,000 tons due to ore grade decline and labor strikes [3][24] - The supply of platinum group metals is highly concentrated, with South Africa and Russia dominating production [3][24] Minor Metals - Cobalt production is set to reach a record high of 290,000 tons in 2024, with the Democratic Republic of Congo contributing 75.86% of the total [4][25] - The report notes that the supply of potassium fertilizers is expected to increase, with Belarus contributing significantly to the growth [4][26] - Rare earth resources are abundant but unevenly distributed, with China holding 48.89% of global reserves [4][29] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for countries to implement policies to manage resource exports and protect domestic industries, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical tensions [35]