Qin Ce Xiao Fei Yan Jiu·2025-03-11 09:23Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese snack industry, highlighting a "golden period" characterized by simultaneous growth in volume and price, driven by health, scenario-based consumption, and digitalization [2][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" phase, with a steady market growth trajectory. The market size is projected to reach 1.4 trillion RMB by 2024, recovering from a growth rate slump during 2020-2022, which saw a mere 0.8% increase in 2022 [2][6]. - The current market structure is layered into three segments: foundational categories supporting the market, emerging categories breaking through, and long-tail categories gaining momentum. Traditional giants are urged to seek high-end upgrades, while new entrants should focus on health transformation [9][12]. - The market is characterized by a "strong head, weak long tail" dynamic in 2023, necessitating traditional categories to innovate through scenarios to extend their lifecycle, while health-focused niches present structural opportunities [2][9]. - Offline channels dominate the snack distribution landscape, with hypermarkets accounting for over 40% of the market share, supermarkets around 24%, and e-commerce channels approximately 20%, which is gradually declining [2][26]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a channel transformation that is generating new growth opportunities. The rise of hypermarkets is particularly noteworthy, as they leverage high turnover efficiency to offer competitive pricing [6][34]. Channel Transformation - The report outlines a significant shift in the snack sales channels over the years, evolving from traditional distribution networks to large chain stores, and now to hypermarket sales models. This transformation is expected to continue, with hypermarkets projected to reach a market size of 1,040 billion RMB by 2024 [25][26]. Analysis of Representative Companies - Mingming Hen Mang: Following a merger, the brand's sales are expected to surge from 23.865 billion RMB in 2023 to 55.5 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth of over 130%. The company serves approximately 5.9 million consumers daily [2][56]. - China Wangwang: The company faces challenges with its core product, Wangzai Milk, which accounts for 90% of its revenue in the dairy segment. The revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 1.6% year-on-year [2][60]. - Three Squirrels: The company has seen a decline in revenue from 9.79 billion RMB in 2020 to 7.12 billion RMB in 2023, primarily due to the fading e-commerce boom and high costs of offline expansion. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024 with a projected revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion RMB, driven by a strategy focused on high-end value and omnichannel sales [2][64].