Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, expecting a return above 10% over the next 12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - CR Beverage is positioned to benefit from national expansion and market penetration strategies, which are expected to drive revenue growth [9]. - The company plans to improve its gross margin by increasing its self-production ratio from approximately 50% in 1H24 to 70% by FY26F, which will enhance cost control and product quality [2]. - The target price for CR Beverage is set at HKD 17.50, based on a 20x FY25F price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the average valuation of the Chinese beverage sector [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for CR Beverage are as follows: - FY23: RMB 13,515 million - FY24: RMB 14,224 million - FY25: RMB 15,217 million - FY26: RMB 16,443 million - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from FY24 to FY26 is estimated at 3.5% [3]. - Net profit forecasts are: - FY23: RMB 1,329 million - FY24: RMB 1,626 million - FY25: RMB 1,891 million - FY26: RMB 2,067 million - The CAGR for adjusted net profit from FY24 to FY26 is projected at 16.8% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - CR Beverage holds an 18.4% market share, ranking second in China's packaged water market, with significant growth potential in northern and central-western regions [1]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence by deepening penetration in lower-tier cities and expanding retail network coverage [1][2].
华润饮料（02460）：杯犹未满：区域集中蕴蓄破局之势