Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of Nongfu Spring is significantly higher than that of its competitor, China Resources Beverage, with a ratio of approximately 23 times, raising questions about the reasons behind this disparity in valuation [1] Financial Performance - Nongfu Spring reported a gross profit margin of 60.3% in the first half of the year, while China Resources Beverage's gross profit margin was only 46.7% [1] Revenue Composition - Nongfu Spring has established a "water + beverage" dual-engine strategy, with tea beverage revenue accounting for 39.4% of its total revenue, compared to only 15.4% for China Resources Beverage [1] Supply Chain Model - Nongfu Spring operates a fully self-sufficient production model, whereas over half of China Resources Beverage's products rely on outsourcing, incurring approximately 2 billion yuan in annual "cooperative production partner service fees," which compresses profit margins [1] Future Plans - China Resources Beverage has recognized its supply chain issues and plans to increase its own production capacity to over 60% by 2025, although building this capacity will take time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stark valuation difference between Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage, despite similar product pricing, highlights the underlying value dynamics in the bottled water industry, with Nongfu Spring commanding a market capitalization of 599.4 billion HKD compared to China Resources Beverage's 26.4 billion HKD [2][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 17, 2023, Nongfu Spring's market capitalization increased by 217.6 billion HKD, while China Resources Beverage's decreased by 1.7 billion HKD, illustrating a significant valuation gap where one Nongfu Spring is equivalent to approximately 23 China Resources Beverages [7]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring reported revenue of 25.622 billion CNY and a net profit of 7.622 billion CNY, with bottled water revenue accounting for 36.9% of total revenue. In contrast, China Resources Beverage had revenue of 6.206 billion CNY and a net profit of only 0.805 billion CNY, with bottled water revenue making up 84.6% of its total [7][9]. Group 2: Profitability Metrics - Nongfu Spring's gross margin reached 60.3% in the first half of 2025, while China Resources Beverage's was 46.7%, indicating a 13.6 percentage point advantage for Nongfu Spring [9][19]. - The gross margins for Nongfu Spring have consistently been higher than those of China Resources Beverage, with a notable difference of 10.8 percentage points in 2024 [9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The bottled water market has seen intense competition, with Nongfu Spring emerging as a leader, while China Resources Beverage has struggled to maintain its market position, leading to a decline in market share for the latter [9][10]. - Nongfu Spring has diversified its product offerings beyond bottled water, with tea beverages contributing significantly to its revenue, while China Resources Beverage is still in the process of expanding its beverage portfolio [9][10]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Models - Nongfu Spring operates a fully self-sufficient production model, controlling its supply chain from water source to bottling, which enhances its cost efficiency and profitability [19][22]. - In contrast, China Resources Beverage relies heavily on a contract manufacturing model, which incurs additional costs and risks associated with outsourcing production [19][22][27]. Group 5: Future Strategies - China Resources Beverage is actively working to increase its self-production capacity, aiming for 60% of its bottled water production to come from its own facilities by 2025, as part of its strategic expansion plan [28][29]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards self-built production facilities, as companies recognize the importance of supply chain control in maintaining competitive advantage [30][31].

每经记者｜范芊芊 丁舟洋 每经编辑｜魏官红 超市货架上，规格相似的农夫山泉矿泉水、怡宝纯净水并排陈列，它们就像是双胞胎：标签上的零售价整齐划一，同样拧盖即饮，口感差异甚微，在消费 者眼里几乎是"可替代选项"。 二级市场上，它们之间却有着像是"摩天大楼与平房"的天差地别：农夫山泉市值5994亿港元，怡宝母公司华润饮料市值仅264亿港元⋯⋯这些2元水的背 后，到底藏着怎样的价值密码？同为龙头水企，资本市场为何给出了如此悬殊的评判？ 过去30年间，在包装饮用水这个看似"平价"的赛道上，头部企业积累了不少身家，陆续走向上市，它们同时揭开了水产业"印钞机"的真相：华润饮料近三 年毛利率均在40%以上，农夫山泉同期的毛利率更是接近60%。 耐人寻味的是，在同一"黄金跑道"上，企业的资本估值截然不同。如今，农夫山泉无疑是当之无愧的"王者"，无论是市场份额还是港股市值，均一骑绝 尘，而第一个站上起跑线、堪称中国包装饮用水开山鼻祖的怡宝，可谓是"起了个大早，赶了个晚集"。 怡宝，究竟为何落了下风？ 2元，2元，还是2元。 去年4月至今，包装饮用水"头部对决"激烈，价格战一度打得难解难分，市场格局此消彼长。 硝烟过后，它们的江湖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stark valuation difference between Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage, despite similar product offerings, highlights the underlying value dynamics in the bottled water industry, with Nongfu Spring commanding a market capitalization of HKD 599.4 billion compared to China Resources Beverage's HKD 26.4 billion [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of October 17, 2023, Nongfu Spring's market capitalization increased by HKD 217.6 billion to HKD 599.4 billion, while China Resources Beverage's market cap decreased by HKD 1.7 billion to HKD 26.4 billion, indicating a valuation ratio of approximately 23:1 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring reported revenue of CNY 25.622 billion and a net profit of CNY 7.622 billion, with bottled water revenue accounting for 36.9% of total revenue. In contrast, China Resources Beverage had revenue of CNY 6.206 billion and a net profit of only CNY 0.805 billion, with bottled water revenue making up 84.6% of its total [6][8]. Group 2: Profit Margins - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring achieved an overall gross margin of 60.3%, while China Resources Beverage's gross margin was 46.7%, reflecting a significant competitive advantage [8][17]. - Nongfu Spring's gross margins have consistently been higher than those of China Resources Beverage, with a margin of 58.1% in 2024 compared to 47.3% for China Resources Beverage [8][17]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Product Diversification - Nongfu Spring has successfully diversified its product offerings beyond bottled water, with tea beverages generating over CNY 10 billion in revenue, accounting for 39.4% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - China Resources Beverage is still in the process of expanding its beverage product line, with only CNY 0.955 billion in beverage revenue, representing 15.4% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025 [9][10]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Models - Nongfu Spring operates a fully self-sufficient production model, controlling its supply chain from water source to bottling, which contributes to its higher gross margins [14][17]. - China Resources Beverage relies heavily on a contract manufacturing model, with approximately 69% of its bottled water produced by third-party manufacturers, leading to increased cost pressures [20][25]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The bottled water market is characterized by intense competition, with Nongfu Spring's strategic focus on product diversification and supply chain control giving it a competitive edge over China Resources Beverage, which is still developing its product range and production capabilities [35][36]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards self-built production facilities, with major players like China Resources Beverage planning to increase its self-produced capacity to 60% by 2025, reflecting a shift in strategy to enhance supply chain control [29][33].

2元，2元，还是2元。 超市货架上，规格相似的农夫山泉矿泉水、怡宝纯净水并排陈列，它们就像是双胞胎：标签上的零售价整齐划一，同样拧盖即饮，口感差异甚微，在消费 者眼里几乎是"可替代选项"。 二级市场上，它们之间却有着像是"摩天大楼与平房"的天差地别：农夫山泉市值5994亿港元，怡宝母公司华润饮料市值仅264亿港元⋯⋯这些2元水的背 后，到底藏着怎样的价值密码，同为龙头水企，资本市场为何给出了如此悬殊的评判？ 过去三十年间，在包装饮用水这个看似"平价"的赛道上，头部企业积累了不少身家，陆续走向上市，它们同时揭开了水产业"印钞机"的真相：华润饮料近 三年毛利率均在40%以上，农夫山泉同期的毛利率更是接近60%。 耐人寻味的是，在同一"黄金跑道"上，企业的资本估值截然不同。如今，农夫山泉无疑是当之无愧的"王者"，无论是市场份额还是港股市值，均一骑绝 尘，而第一个站上起跑线、堪称中国包装饮用水开山鼻祖的怡宝，可谓是"起了个大早，赶了个晚集"。 怡宝，究竟为何落了下风？ 悬殊原因之一：瓶里装的是生命之源，账里拼的是造血能力 去年4月至今，包装饮用水"头部对决"激烈，价格战一度打得难解难分，市场格局此消彼长。 硝烟过后， ...

Group 1: Heart Disease Medical Devices - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Xintai Medical, with a target price of HKD 28.94, highlighting its leadership in congenital heart disease intervention devices and a projected revenue growth of 32.4% year-on-year for H1 2025 [1] Group 2: Express Delivery Services - CITIC Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Jitu Express, noting a 23.1% year-on-year increase in parcel volume in Q3, with Southeast Asia's growth rate reaching 78.7%, driven by cost and efficiency advantages [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan also maintains an "accumulate" rating for Jitu Express, reporting a market share increase to 32.8% and a recovery in domestic express delivery prices, despite a downward revision in profit forecasts [3] Group 3: Healthcare and Medical Services - CITIC Jiantou maintains a "buy" rating for China Resources Medical, indicating that while H1 2025 performance may be pressured by declining average medical insurance fees, the company holds a solid regional leadership position [4] - CITIC Jiantou also maintains a "buy" rating for Weitai Medical, projecting a 63.1% year-on-year revenue growth for H1 2025, with significant narrowing of losses and potential for breakeven by year-end [5] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Retail - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Shangmei Co., with a target price of HKD 120.9, emphasizing strong growth in net profit at a compound annual growth rate of 130% from 2022 to 2024 [6] - Huaxin Securities maintains an "accumulate" rating for Nayuki Tea, benefiting from demand catalyzed by Meituan's delivery subsidies and seasonal effects, with improved profitability through product innovation [7] - Huaxin Securities also maintains a "buy" rating for Wugu Mofang, reporting a 14% revenue growth and an 18% net profit increase for H1 2025, driven by strong performance in offline channels [8] Group 5: Food and Beverage - Guangda Securities maintains an "accumulate" rating for Xiaocaiyuan, noting its position as a leading casual dining chain with a customer price range of HKD 50-70, and plans to expand to 1,000 stores by the end of 2026 [10] - Xibu Securities initiates coverage on China Resources Beverages with an "accumulate" rating and a target price of HKD 15, highlighting a market share of 32.7% and improvements in gross margin through increased self-production [11]

Core Viewpoint - The packaging drinking water market is experiencing steady growth, with leading companies maintaining a strong competitive advantage in a rapidly expanding industry [1][2] Market Overview - The packaging drinking water market size reached 215 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.47%, accounting for 23.65% of the soft drink market; the CAGR from 2018 to 2023 is 7.10%, outpacing other segments of the soft drink market [1] - The market for packaged water has essential attributes, fulfilling basic needs and testing supply and channel capabilities, with a CR5 retail value of 58.6% in 2023; the pure water market faces more evident homogenization and higher demands for supply chain and cost control, with China Resources Beverage leading with a 32.7% market share [1] Profitability and Growth Potential - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from packaged drinking water and beverage products is projected to be 5.251 billion yuan and 955 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 85% and 15% of total revenue; there is an expected increase in gross margin for packaged water due to rising self-production ratios and capacity utilization [1] - The company operates 15 self-owned factories and collaborates with 35 production partners, achieving coverage in first-tier and new first-tier cities within a radius of 300-500 kilometers, indicating potential for increased capacity utilization in self-owned factories [1] Channel Expansion and Marketing Strategy - There is significant room for regional expansion beyond the home base and surrounding areas, with ongoing national expansion efforts [1] - The brand's image is strongly associated with sports concepts, and the company is gradually developing diversified marketing strategies [1] Investment Recommendations - Short-term revenue growth in the packaged drinking water segment will be driven by national expansion and channel refinement, while long-term benefits will arise from industry consolidation and an increase in the proportion of medium-sized products [2] - As the company transitions towards a platform-based enterprise, there is substantial long-term revenue growth potential in the beverage business [2] - With the gradual increase in self-owned production capacity and the release of scale effects, there remains significant room for profit improvement; projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 11.2 billion, 12.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 19, 15, and 14 times [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) for its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The packaging drinking water market is expected to grow, with a market size of 215 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.47%, and accounting for 23.65% of the soft drink market [6][35]. - China Resources Beverage holds a leading market share of 32.7% in the pure water segment, benefiting from strong supply chain and cost control capabilities [2][35]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by national expansion and channel refinement, with long-term benefits from industry consolidation and increased market share of mid-sized products [14][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Resources Beverage has been deeply engaged in the packaging water sector for over 40 years, establishing itself as a leader in the pure water market [19]. - The company has a stable controlling shareholder, with management primarily from the China Resources Group, ensuring operational stability [23]. 2. Market Demand and Competitive Position - The packaging drinking water market is characterized by strong demand, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.10% from 2018 to 2023, outpacing other segments of the soft drink market [35]. - The company’s market position is reinforced by its scale advantages, with a CR5 of 58.6% in the packaging water market, indicating a strong competitive landscape [56]. 3. Profitability and Growth Potential - The company’s revenue from packaging drinking water and beverage products for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 5.251 billion yuan and 955 million yuan, respectively, with a significant growth potential in the beverage segment [2][28]. - The gross margin for packaging water is expected to improve as the company increases its self-production ratio and capacity utilization [2][14]. 4. National Expansion and Channel Strategy - There is substantial room for regional expansion beyond the company's home base, with ongoing efforts to enhance brand image and marketing strategies [3][4]. - The company is focusing on refining its distribution channels and increasing its presence in first-tier and new first-tier cities [3][4]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 11.2 billion, 12.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan, with net profits expected to reach 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively [14][4].

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities forecasts that China Resources Beverage (02460) will achieve revenues of 11.2 billion, 12.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of 19, 15, and 14 times [1] Group 1 - The company's revenue growth in packaged drinking water is driven by national expansion and channel refinement in the short term [1] - Long-term benefits are expected from industry concentration towards leading companies and an increase in the proportion of medium-sized products [1] - The company is transitioning towards a platform-based enterprise, indicating significant long-term revenue growth potential in its beverage business [1] Group 2 - As the proportion of self-owned production capacity increases and economies of scale are realized, there is substantial room for improvement in cost efficiency [1] - The company's profitability is expected to enhance significantly as operational efficiencies are achieved [1]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities (002673) projects that China Resources Beverage (02460) will achieve revenues of 11.2 billion, 12.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan for the same years, indicating a corresponding PE ratio of 19, 15, and 14 times [1] Group 1 - The company is currently in a phase of national expansion and channel refinement, which is expected to drive short-term revenue growth in packaged drinking water [1] - The long-term growth potential is supported by industry consolidation towards leading companies and an increase in the proportion of medium-sized products [1] - As the company transitions towards a platform-based enterprise, there is significant long-term revenue growth potential in the beverage business [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to improve its profitability as the proportion of self-owned production capacity increases and economies of scale are realized, leading to enhanced cost efficiency [1] - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting the company's strategic positioning and growth prospects [1]