BOCOM International·2025-03-13 02:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 38.2% from the current price of HKD 97.45 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the widespread adoption of intelligent driving technology, with a strong new product cycle anticipated in 2025, including the launch of the upgraded G6 and G9 models [7]. - Xiaopeng Motors is projected to achieve a significant sales increase of 133% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 440,000 units, driven by competitive pricing strategies and enhanced intelligent driving features [7]. - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards, with expected revenues growing from RMB 30,676 million in 2023 to RMB 85,431 million in 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [6][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Xiaopeng Motors are as follows: RMB 26,855 million in 2022, RMB 30,676 million in 2023, RMB 41,457 million in 2024E, RMB 85,431 million in 2025E, and RMB 112,408 million in 2026E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 28.0%, 14.2%, 35.1%, 106.1%, and 31.6% respectively [6][11]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 10,376 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 630 million in 2025, with a projected profit of RMB 1,431 million in 2026 [6][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 150.81 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 97.45 and a low of HKD 26.05 [4][8]. Product Development - The upcoming models, G6 and G9, will feature significant enhancements in design, interior, and intelligent driving capabilities, with the G6 offering a range of six new body colors and the G9 adopting a new design language [7]. - The intelligent driving systems in both models will transition to a pure vision approach, eliminating the need for lidar, which is expected to enhance their market competitiveness [7]. Market Position - Xiaopeng Motors has recently surpassed its competitor, Li Auto, in weekly sales, indicating a strong market position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [7]. - The company is strategically expanding its product matrix to include models priced between RMB 100,000 to 150,000, aiming to capture a larger market share through competitive pricing and superior intelligent driving features [7].