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传奇生物(LEGN):Carvykti逐季放量能见度高,指引2Q26经营层面盈亏平衡,维持买入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Legend Biotech (LEGN US), with a target price of $72.00, indicating a potential upside of 93.6% from the current price of $37.19 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve positive net profit of $0.26 million in Q4 2024, aligning with previous expectations, and has sufficient cash reserves of $1.1 billion to support operations until Q2 2026, when it is projected to reach operational breakeven [2][6]. - The current stock price does not fully reflect the long-term market potential of Carvykti, the company's key product, and has already incorporated expectations regarding competitive landscape changes [2][6]. - The report highlights significant sales growth for Carvykti, with Q4 2024 sales increasing by 17% and 15% in the U.S. and internationally, respectively, reaching $304 million and $31 million [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are updated to $1.061 billion, a 0.9% increase from previous estimates, with further growth expected to $1.480 billion in 2026 and $1.830 billion in 2027 [5][11]. - Gross profit is projected to be $676 million in 2025, with a gross margin of 63.8%, and is expected to improve to $951 million and 64.2% in 2026 [5][11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is revised to a loss of $55 million, improving to a profit of $131 million in 2026 and $315 million in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][11]. Market and Product Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new production capacity and market penetration strategies for Carvykti, with expectations of sales reaching $1.92 billion in 2025 and $2.85 billion in 2026 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence by increasing the number of hospitals offering Carvykti treatment and enhancing education for primary care physicians [6][7]. - The report also suggests monitoring early data releases for other CAR-T therapies, such as DLL-3 and Claudin 18.2, which could provide additional growth opportunities [6].