美股宏观策略：美国宏观出现隐忧，恐慌情绪蔓延

Group 1: Macro Economic Concerns - The report highlights a significant decline in major US stock indices, with the S&P 500 down 9%, Nasdaq 100 down 13%, and Russell 2000 down 16%, indicating a broad market sell-off driven by reduced risk appetite among investors [1] - The report notes a sharp increase in high-yield bond spreads, which rose by 30 basis points to 3.2%, signaling heightened concerns over corporate default risks [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 50 basis points to 4.18%, while gold prices increased by nearly 9%, approaching the $3,000 per ounce mark, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from "reflation trades" to "recession pricing" [1] Group 2: Labor Market Signals - The ADP private sector employment report revealed only 77,000 new jobs added in February, significantly below the expected 140,000 and the previous month's 186,000, marking the lowest level since July 2024 [2] - The Challenger report indicated that the number of layoffs in February doubled year-on-year to 172,000, nearing the peak levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis [2] - Despite the negative employment data, the non-farm payroll report showed a slight increase in jobs, with 151,000 new jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate only marginally rising to 4.1%, still below the Federal Reserve's natural rate threshold of 4.3% [2] Group 3: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Insights - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.5 in February, exceeding expectations and indicating continued expansion in the services sector, with the new orders index increasing to 52.2 [3] - The manufacturing PMI also remained above the neutral level at 50.3, marking the first consecutive month of expansion since October 2022 [3] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the economy, despite some mixed data, as the employment sub-index rose to 53.9, indicating ongoing strength in job creation [3] Group 4: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Focus - The upcoming FOMC meeting is significant as it will be the first in 2025 to update economic projections and the dot plot, coinciding with heightened trade policy uncertainties [3] - Key signals to watch include potential adjustments to the interest rate path, particularly if officials raise the expected terminal rate cuts from two to three, which could impact short-term interest-sensitive assets [3] - The Fed's stance on inflation tolerance, especially regarding recent inflation data and the characterization of "temporary tariff transmission effects," will influence market expectations for monetary policy [3]