策略日报(2025.03.12)-2025-03-12

Group 1: Bond Market - The bond market has stabilized and rebounded as expected, with all maturities of interest rate bonds rising, particularly the long end outperforming the short end. The market has fully priced in the interest rate cut expectations, and the 10-year government bond futures have stabilized after reaching a technical support level [3][16][18] - The 1-year government bond yield has fully priced in the expected interest rate cut for this year, and the yield curve is currently flat, indicating a lower probability of making significant bets [18][16] Group 2: Stock Market - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with sectors that performed well yesterday declining today, indicating a fragmented market. The small-cap index has performed well, while the tech and North Star indices have lagged [4][21] - The technology sector's long-term bull market remains intact, but short-term trading is crowded, leading to potential volatility. Investors are advised to take profits and focus on low-position stocks in consumer, medical, and dividend sectors [4][21][22] Group 3: US Stock Market - The US stock market indices have continued to decline, with the Dow Jones index experiencing a significant drop. The market is expected to undergo a monthly-level adjustment, with investors advised to wait for long-term buying opportunities [4][23] - Recent economic data from the US has underperformed expectations, leading to rising inflation expectations and signs of stagflation. The market's perception of the "Trump Put" has shifted towards a "Trump Recession" narrative [23][26] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.2425, up 147 basis points from the previous close. The market is betting on a European recovery narrative, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD index [5][29] - The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and it is expected to remain stable in the range of 7.1-7.4 in the short term. However, there is potential for depreciation due to ongoing trade war pressures [29][5] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index has slightly declined by 0.04%, with the non-ferrous sector leading gains. However, the overall market is expected to experience downward risks after a short-term fluctuation, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][32]