部分购车需求如期在春节前释放，“以旧换新”政策将继续促进2025年销量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the automotive sector [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that some car purchase demand was released ahead of the Spring Festival, and the "trade-in" policy will continue to support sales in 2025 [11]. - In January 2025, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in China were approximately 1.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 41.5% in January 2025, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The report highlights that the domestic market for NEVs is expected to capture a larger share of the fuel vehicle market, with a projected penetration rate of 50%-55% by 2025 [14]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - In January 2025, the dealer inventory warning index reached 62.3, the highest level in nearly seven years, indicating a decline in market activity [15]. - The wholesale sales of NEVs in January 2025 were approximately 890,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.8% [11]. Key Players and Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the automotive sector, including Great Wall Motors (02333 HK), Geely Automobile (00175 HK), BYD (01211 HK), Li Auto (02015 HK), Xpeng Motors (09868 HK), and Leapmotor (09863 HK) for their strong performance and rapid transition to new energy [16]. - For the heavy truck segment, it recommends China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808 HK) and Weichai Power (02338 HK) [22]. Export Trends - NEV exports accounted for 36.6% of total exports in January 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8 percentage points [11]. - The total export volume in January 2025 was 380,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [11]. Component Sector - The report continues to recommend companies like Nidec (01316 HK) and Minth Group (00425 HK) in the components sector, highlighting their potential growth driven by the recovery of the domestic automotive industry and gradual improvement in overseas sales [24][25].