前两月进口量增速显著放缓，今年印尼和俄罗斯进口端或存变数

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the coal industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of coal imports in the first two months of the year has significantly slowed, with potential uncertainties regarding imports from Indonesia and Russia [1]. - Domestic coal production in Inner Mongolia is expected to stabilize at over 1.2 billion tons in 2025, with production levels for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 being 1.21, 1.22, and 1.297 billion tons respectively [1]. - The average daily coal consumption of power plants across 25 provinces increased by 2.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching 5.56 million tons [2]. - The report suggests that while coal prices have rebounded slightly, the potential for significant price increases remains limited unless unexpected factors arise [2]. Summary by Sections Coal Import Trends - In January and February 2025, China imported 76.12 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the growth rate has narrowed significantly compared to the second half of the previous year [1]. - Indonesia's coal reference price for March was set at $50.7 per ton, reflecting a slight increase, but market activity has slowed due to new pricing regulations [1]. Price Movements - As of March 7, 2025, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port rose to 686 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week decline of 1.2% and a year-on-year decline of 25% [2]. - The report indicates that the recent price rebound is primarily due to a slight contraction in supply during the Two Sessions and increased purchasing willingness [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, suggesting that investors should focus on firms like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields and low valuations [9]. - It also recommends monitoring companies like Huabei Mining, which has a stable fundamental outlook and has seen significant shareholder buybacks [9].