英大证券策略晨报-2025-03-12

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive fundamental outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [18]. Core Views - The A-share market demonstrates resilience, with a "slow bull" trend remaining the main theme despite external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and economic recession fears. The market's stability is supported by robust fiscal policies, including a projected budget deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][10]. - Investors are advised to adopt a "buy low, sell high" strategy in the short term, focusing on stocks with strong earnings support, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from policy boosts and domestic consumption trends [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market showed resilience amid global market volatility, with major indices closing in the green despite initial declines. Key sectors such as aerospace and agriculture performed well, indicating structural opportunities within the market [2][9]. - The overall market sentiment was moderate, with a total trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan across the exchanges, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,379.83 points, up 0.41% [6]. Sector Analysis - Aerospace and military stocks were notably active, with expectations of increased defense budgets and ongoing geopolitical tensions serving as potential catalysts for growth. However, high valuations may lead to volatility in individual stocks [7]. - Consumer sectors, particularly liquor and poultry, showed resilience against external uncertainties, with domestic consumption expected to drive economic recovery in 2025. The report highlights opportunities in the "silver economy" and affordable retail segments [7][8]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, supported by government policies aimed at fostering new industries. The report anticipates a trillion-yuan market for general aviation by 2030, with opportunities in low-altitude infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing [8].