大公国际：多晶硅产业触底调整，需关注后续供需错配改善情况

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the polysilicon industry is currently in an oversupply cycle, with prices continuously declining and significant pressure on corporate profitability [1][12]. Core Insights - The polysilicon industry has entered an oversupply cycle since 2024, leading to a decline in prices and profitability for companies. Some polysilicon manufacturers are responding by reducing production and conducting maintenance to alleviate market pressure. The acceleration of capacity clearance and inventory reduction is expected to support polysilicon prices in the short term [1][12]. - The Chinese government has shown strong support for the polysilicon industry through positive policies and increased regulation, aiming to guide and promote sustainable development within the sector. This includes encouraging technological innovation and reasonable layout of new capacity [2][3]. - The polysilicon industry is experiencing a dual transformation in product forms and material types, with a shift towards N-type materials and breakthroughs in granular silicon technology expected to drive further technological changes [6][11]. Policy Environment - The government has implemented various policies to support the polysilicon industry, focusing on promoting downstream development, encouraging technological innovation, and stabilizing the industry [3][5]. - Key policies include promoting intelligent photovoltaic innovations, supporting high-purity silicon production, and encouraging the automation and digitalization of polysilicon enterprises [5][6]. Industry Structure - As of the end of 2023, China's effective polysilicon production capacity reached 2.3 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 97.2%. The new planned capacity for 2024 is estimated at 1.225 million tons [6][7]. - The top five polysilicon companies in 2023 held a market share of over 70%, indicating a high level of industry concentration [7]. Profitability - The profitability of polysilicon companies has been significantly pressured due to declining prices and high inventory levels. In 2024, the inventory of polysilicon is expected to be around 350,000 tons, with prices dropping below cash costs [12][14]. - Major companies like Tongwei Co. have reported continuous losses in early 2024, with a significant drop in sales gross margin [14]. Future Outlook - The acceleration of capacity clearance and inventory reduction is expected to alleviate oversupply in the short term, but the return of polysilicon prices to a reasonable range dominated by supply and demand fundamentals remains uncertain [16]. - The introduction of polysilicon futures trading in late 2024 is anticipated to positively impact market supply-demand relationships and spot prices [16].