ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-03-14 11:05Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China People's Insurance Company (601319) for the first time [6]. Core Views - China People's Insurance Company is a leading player in the property insurance sector, with a strong focus on both property and life insurance, showing promising transformation results in its life insurance segment [4][14]. - The company has demonstrated stable growth in investment management, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% in total investment assets from 2015 to 2023 [3]. - The forecast for revenue growth is 14% in 2024, followed by 6% and 8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant expected increase in net profit in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China People's Insurance Company has a long-standing history and is recognized as a pioneer in the insurance industry, with a comprehensive business model covering property, life, and health insurance [14][15]. - The company has maintained a dominant position in the property insurance market, with property insurance accounting for over 70% of its revenue [15][16]. Property Insurance - The company leads the market with a property insurance premium market share of 31.8% as of the end of 2024, significantly ahead of its competitors [18]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) for auto insurance is 96.4% in 2024H1, indicating strong underwriting profitability [39]. - Non-auto insurance premiums are expected to be a major growth driver, with a projected share of 44.7% in 2024 [37]. Life Insurance - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance has shown a remarkable recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 69.6% in 2023 and 91% in 2024H1 [2]. - The bank insurance channel has become a significant contributor, accounting for 49.1% of the NBV in 2024H1 [2]. - The health insurance segment has also seen substantial growth, with a 159% increase in NBV in 2024H1 compared to the previous year [2]. Investment Performance - The total investment assets reached 1.53 trillion yuan by the end of 2024H1, with an average net investment return of 5.1% from 2015 to 2024H1, outperforming major competitors [3]. - The company has maintained a stable investment performance with low volatility, contributing positively to its overall profitability [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14% in 2024, with net profit projected to increase by 88% [4]. - The target price is set at 7.88 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.21 times for 2025 [4].