Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expressing confidence in achieving year-on-year revenue growth in the latter half of 2024 [8]. - The operating profit margin for 2025 is projected to improve slightly due to better retail discounts and an increased sales proportion of new products, despite potential challenges from e-commerce growth affecting channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to decline from RMB 20,064 million in 2023 to RMB 18,592 million in 2025, with a year-on-year change of -8% in 2024 and a slight recovery of 1% in 2025 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 523 million in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 450% in 2023, followed by modest growth rates in subsequent years [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2023 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4][6].
宝胜国际（03813）：业绩边际改善的概率较高，股息率提升的确定性增强