Topsec(002212) 国泰君安·2025-03-14 08:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 11.66 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 8.23 CNY [1][13]. Core Views - The company is strategically positioned in the AI and cloud computing sectors, with the Tianwen Intelligent Cloud Platform designed for private deployment of large models. It has recently been included in Gartner's report on the competitive landscape of Chinese hyper-converged suppliers, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2][13]. - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.82 billion, 2.96 billion, and 3.83 billion CNY respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.07, 0.25, and 0.32 CNY [13][27]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 3.54 billion CNY in 2022 to 2.88 billion CNY in 2024, before recovering to 3.25 billion CNY in 2025 and 3.68 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9% from 2025 to 2026 [4][27]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to turn from a loss of 371 million CNY in 2023 to profits of 82 million CNY in 2024, 296 million CNY in 2025, and 383 million CNY in 2026 [4][27]. - The company’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 52.62, with an expected P/E of 131.83 for 2024, decreasing to 36.49 in 2025 and 28.17 in 2026 [4][29]. Market Data - The company has a total market capitalization of 10.285 billion CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 4.08 to 9.76 CNY [5][9]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 7.84 CNY, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1 [6][29]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 28.85 billion CNY in 2024, 32.54 billion CNY in 2025, and 36.75 billion CNY in 2026, with a focus on enhancing its AI and cloud computing capabilities [27][29]. Valuation Analysis - The report uses a P/E valuation method, assigning a target P/E of 46.5 for 2025 based on the company's leading position in the network security sector and its comprehensive capabilities [29][30].