中邮证券-美国2月CPI数据解读：通胀降温，政策不确定性仍存

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [32]. Core Insights - The February inflation data in the U.S. showed a significant cooling, with the CPI increasing by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 3% [12]. - Core inflation also fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, compared to the anticipated 3.2% [12]. - The decline in transportation costs, particularly a 4% drop in airfare, was a major contributor to the lower CPI [14]. - The report suggests that core service inflation is continuing to cool, with rent growth decreasing to 4.3% year-on-year, down from around 6% at the beginning of 2024 [2][19]. - Concerns about the potential inflationary impact of tariff policies are noted, but historical data indicates limited effects from previous tariff increases [23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. February Inflation Data - The February CPI data was significantly below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [12]. - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation [12][11]. Section 2: Core Service Inflation - Core service inflation is on a downward trend, with housing rent growth decreasing to 4.3% year-on-year [2][19]. - Other service-related price increases linked to labor costs are also showing a downward trend [2]. Section 3: Tariff Policies and Inflation - The report discusses concerns regarding the potential inflationary effects of new tariff policies, referencing the 2018-2019 tariff increases that did not lead to significant inflation [23][20]. - It concludes that if tariffs are targeted rather than broad, their impact on inflation may be limited [29].